NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Justin Thomas (+6200) ... When you eliminate the 15 in the Power Rankings and zoom further in to identify those who have earned our confidence for even a fraction of a unit in this market, this guy is a default, and especially for this kickback. In five starts since returning from months off to have and recover from a microdiscectomy, he’s recorded only one top 25 – a T8 at THE PLAYERS Championship – but he won’t remain winless forever. To that we can all agree. So, the angle here is simple. Hop on in a no-cut, limited-field Signature Event like the Cadillac Championship not far from his home in Jupiter, Florida, climes with which he’s most familiar. While it’s been 10 years, it also doesn’t hurt that he’s among the 10 in the field who pegged it on the Blue Monster in 2016.

Top 5

Jacob Bridgeman (+590) ... Just like with Thomas above, it’s absurd to label Bridgeman as a Sleeper in a vacuum, so it requires the context of this value in a market in which he’s delivered three times this year. He’s outside the top-15 shortest in the field of 72, so that qualifies for our purposes here. Since a white-hot start to the season that included his breakthrough victory at The Riviera Country Club, thus becoming the first debutant to record an official victory on the course in 51 years, he’s cooled to the tune of a T14 and a pair of forgettable results, but the Blue Monster presents as a neutral field on which his balanced attack can go to work. His uptick overall has been as a result of improved tee-to-green performance as he continues to learn the rotation of host sites, all the while he’s elevated to No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Putting. Loves himself some Bermudagrass greens, so he should be a quicker study than the field average in scoring.

Top 10

Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+550) ... He had planned a break until fellow lefty, David Ford, withdrew early from the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. So, Yellamaraju agreed to partner with Ryan Gerard. The duo placed 34th of the 35 teams that cashed. It’s unlikely that that shoved Yellamaraju’s value at the Cadillac Championship into our favor, but these odds are tasty for a guy who went T5-T6-T14 on his own ball in his three starts leading up to the PGA TOUR’s only official team competition. That spurt was sparked at THE PLAYERS Championship, not a shabby debut for anyone, much less a rookie, who’s on the inside lane to win the Arnold Palmer Award. Exceptionally balanced despite his inexperience at this level and he can hang with the bombers just fine off the tee. But he’s also seventh in proximity to the hole in part to ranking No. 1 in all approaches from outside 200 yards.

Top 20

Ryan Fox (+240) ... As we dip into the markets for outside finishes, pre-tournament kickbacks are muted because of the smaller field and in the absence of a cut. So, monitor these markets in between rounds as the odds are promised to separate. That said, there’s nothing wrong with getting more than twice your investment now for the Kiwi to pay you off. Now that he’s recovered from the untimely kidney stones that thwarted his appearance at THE PLAYERS, it’s shrewd to re-engage on his upswing. Finished T16 two weeks ago at the RBC Heritage for his second top 20 in five starts. Another three in his last eight resulted in a T24, all of which exactly one stroke outside their respective top 20s. His muscle off the tee will allow shorter irons into Blue Monster’s greens on which he can put his primary weapon to use.

Top 30

Austin Smotherman (+192) ... Ties are not paid for this market or the Top 40 below, but that’s fine. It’s tough enough to circle a worthy option in the vicinity of a kickback twice the outlay, but the 31-year-old deserves it after having connected for a trio of top 15s this season, including a T13 at TPC Sawgrass. For a guy who finds so many fairways and greens, and then profiles as an aggressive scorer with the putter, he three-putts too much, thus the overall inconsistency. At the same time, the promise of four rounds allows for the recent firepower to reignite on a track where his multi-layered skill set is required. The compelling fit intimates that you’d be retreating into this market rather than targeting it, but these odds easily still support him as a Sleeper right here.

Top 40

Andrew Putnam (+108) ... There are only 10 golfers in the field with plus value in this market, so the target sample is small. That said, it’s a Signature Event for which a special level of performance was required to qualify, so the upshot is that there’s more meat on this bone versus the same market at another tournament. As it concerns the 37-year-old, he gained entry based on his full season’s worth of play. It’s been highlighted by a pair of top-five finishes where his vintage irons resurfaced, including a T5 at the Valero Texas Open three weeks ago. He has four top 40s in all and checked up one stroke outside the same bubble on either side of the leaderboard appearance at TPC San Antonio.

Odds were sourced at DraftKings.

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