NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Brian Harman (+8000): The lefty has been coming to Caves Valley Golf Club since the 2007 Palmer Cup. He finished T29 in his return at the 2021 BMW Championship but won’t even need that to advance to the TOUR Championship because he’s 18th in the FedExCup. So, freed to play his game, albeit on a course that doesn’t resemble what he tried to tackle in his first two spins, he can continue to pile onto strong results of late for momentum entering the finale. He’s connected for two top 10s and a T22 in his last four starts, but it’s been months since he put four rounds together, thus these long odds to prevail in a field of 49. The assignment is to circle a proven winner with the kind of balanced attack that a long track with unfamiliar greens will reward. He more than holds his own from tee to green, but if the BMW Championship evolves into a putting contest like it did four years ago, he’d be even more of a threat. (Reminder: There have been only two first-time winners in the history of the FedExCup Playoffs.)

Top 5

Si Woo Kim (+750): This market has been gold for about a year and a half. On eight occasions, my tout has paid, including thrice this season. The most recent was Cameron Young (at +1000) when he broke through at the Wyndham Championship two weeks ago, and it’s second time that he delivered (T4, RBC Canadian Open). At 41st in the FedExCup, Kim doesn’t need a top five to advance – a 21st-place finish at worst gives him a chance – but he has the form and the fit to fulfill the faith. He’s fresh off a T14 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and slotted second in SG: Tee-to-Green. Those align with his strengths, so it’s plug and play for a chance to get hot with the flat stick. With the entire field learning new putting surfaces, his strong ball-striking plays up early, and that can feed into a confidence to keep the pedal down.

Top 10

Andrew Novak (+380): With only 49 golfers in play, odds are commensurately shorter in every market, but I’m surprised that he’s not even shorter still given his T6 at TPC Southwind and how he proved that he can ride hot play with his three consecutive podium finishes in March. There’s also the promise that at least 20 percent of the field is guaranteed a top 10. (He finished outside the top 10 by one or two strokes twice in the interim, results that would’ve dented this week’s value had he been a smidge more efficient in both.) At 11th in the FedExCup and promised a spot in his first TOUR Championship, life is good for the 30-year-old, but there’s no disputing the form that got him here. Strike while his irons are hot (again).

Top 20

Jhonattan Vegas (+170): It’s more of a coincidence that he and Bud Cauley (below) have the same odds in this market than it is that they tied for 14th with Si Woo Kim (above) at TPC Southwind – because they go about their craft differently. But that both are this long in this market is a bonus. Only four others are longer. Vegas has only four top-35 finishes this season, but all are top 20s. He’s always leaned on power and precision from tee to green, which is exactly the foundation for success at Caves Valley, which tips at 7,601 yards. He’s 49th in the FedExCup, so there’s nothing to defend. That’s the greenest of lights for an aggressive player.

Bud Cauley (+170): The 35-year-old turned status via a Major Medical Extension to open 2025 into starts in all Signature Events in 2026. That alone deserves a respectful golf clap. Now 46th in the FedExCup and on the bounce of his seventh top 25 of the season, he’s reentered a zone not dissimilar to his rapid rise to membership immediately after turning pro in 2011. It’s a magical place to be for any golfer who’s promised a long runway because he hasn’t reached the end of it yet. Makes the most of his field-average opportunities from tee to green because putting has him positioned 17th on the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring.

Odds were sourced at FanDuel.

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