Sleeper Picks: Texas Children's Houston Open

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Victor Perez (+12000) … Now and again, you’ll read my advice to mark and follow but not invest in an established golfer who’s fresh off an injury, only to then pounce on the upswing in the next opportunity if merited. He was part of that subset at last week’s Valspar Championship after opting out of THE PLAYERS Championship early with an uncooperative back. Lo and behold, he responded with a T22 thanks to a terrific week with the putter. He also led the field in Par-5 Scoring, so if his back was a bother, it wasn’t reflected in his performance. Two of the four winners at Memorial Park Golf Course were first-timers on the PGA TOUR, so he’d be the third, but the Frenchman is no stranger to winning abroad, what with three titles on the DP World Tour headlining his achievements.

Top 5

Max McGreevy (+1800) … If you were holding your breath on him early in the year, you weren’t alone. After torching the Korn Ferry Tour for two wins among a litany of leaderboard appearances last year, a T11 in a spot start at the Black Desert Championship on the PGA TOUR and yet another win at the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament in Japan, it was confounding that he opened 2025 with three missed cuts and a withdrawal. But he’s reversed course and has returned to our good graces. Cashed in all of his last five starts with a T4 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches among three top 25s. Also 2-for-2 at Memorial Park with a T19 in 2021.

Top 10

Alex Smalley (+500) … When we’re looking for the edge, it’s easiest to lean into the guy who leads the PGA TOUR in the all-around ranking. Indeed, his bag is the most consistently strong relative to everyone else. But even if you never want to play the game on paper, consider that all six of his paydays in 2025 are top 25s – a T10 at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld is the best of the bunch – and he’s 2-for-3 at Memorial Park with a T15 in 2021 and a T4 in 2022, so he has receipts, too. The upshot of him missing the cut at the Copperhead Course last week is an extra two days of rest and mental separation from what was a brute of a test as usual.

Top 20

Jeremy Paul (+500) … For last week’s Valspar Championship, I had earmarked Sam Ryder for a Top 40 for Sleepers, but FanDuel didn’t have a market and Ryder seemingly was a reach for a Top 20. Lo and behold, he delivered a T16 punctuated by a nothing-but-net ace on the par-3 17th hole in the third round. (Shout out to my colleague, Chris Breece, for connecting with Ryder at +150 for a Top 40 at DraftKings in his weekly Bank Builder, so the bet was covered in our Golfbet content.) I also had Paul on the shortlist for the same bet, so he also was omitted in the absence of a market. That said, the German gave investors in for a Top 20 a wild ride that resulted in a T22, 17 places lower than where he started the final round. Still, with that and a T16 in his previous start at the Puerto Rico Open, he remains in the crosshairs. The rookie is inside the top 30 on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and greens in regulation, exactly the skill set required to get over on Memorial Park.

Top Canadian

Nick Taylor (+350) … Part of this is about him, another part is about Taylor Pendrith (+210 in this market), who has been on a slide. Currently 17th in fairways hit, fifth in Greens in Regulation, 29th in Proximity to Hole and 21st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Taylor presents top-shelf accuracy from tee to green and he’s logged six rounds at Memorial Park, so fit and experience are weapons. He’s also thrived in 2025 with a playoff victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii among two top 10s and another pair of top 25s.

Odds were sourced at FanDuel.

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