Sleeper Picks: Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

There are several sleepers in this field, as the PGA TOUR showcases its depth, but here are the players I believe could be diamonds in the rough at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld.

Outright

Aldrich Potgieter +7000… If this is a bomber’s course, then we’d better keep an eye on the biggest of the bombers. The South African rookie leads the TOUR in Driving Distance (and also Driving Distance – All Drives) and is second in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. While he missed the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii, where brawn doesn’t win, he was T15 at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines a few weeks back. He will be able to launch missiles this week, and the accuracy won’t be as penal as other weeks on TOUR. Sitting 42nd in SG: Putting is more than reasonable to suggest he can notch up enough birdies.

Note: The player I slot in the outright sleeper category is someone I’d also advocate betting across any or all of the Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, Top 40 or Make Cut markets.

Top 5

Justin Lower (including ties) +1100… Do you know how hard it is to agree with your colleagues when you prefer going head-to-head with banter at them? Given that Golfbet’s own fearless leader Will Gray has both Potgieter and Lower on his radar this week, it gives me little pleasure to double down, yet here we are. Lower is 20th on TOUR in relation to par from outside 200 yards, a stat you should check out in my Benny and the Bets column this week. He’s second on TOUR in Proximity, and he’s made it all the way to number six in Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings thanks in part to being third at VidantaWorld a year ago.

Top 10

Carson Young (including ties) +500… He has clearly figured something out at this course given a T15 and then T8 last year at VidantaWorld. He’s not the longest player on TOUR by any stretch, but he still puts it out past 300 yards consistently and ranks a handy 36th this season in SG: Putting. Has gained almost two strokes per round on average at this course.

Top 20

Karl Vilips (including ties) +360… Say hello to the newest character on TOUR in “Koala” Karl Vilips. Already making a splash by signing with Sun Day Red as a clothing sponsor, the Stanford graduate gets his chance to shine after coming through from the Korn Ferry Tour last year. On the KFT, Vilips was third in Driving Distance and 25th in Total Driving. He was also first in Birdie Average and Par 4 Scoring and had the best Final Round Scoring Average in his 10 starts. Won in Utah to secure TOUR status and is an extremely confident individual.

Top 40

Chris Gotterup +105… A winner at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic last season, Gotterup has my attention because of his long ball. He’s 27th on TOUR in Driving Distance (second in Driving Distance – All Drives) and is also 27th in Proximity when coming from the rough. A recent T25 at Torrey Pines gives me some hope he can find his best stuff this week.

Wildcard

Max McGreevy … Terrible form coming in. Nothing that should excite you in three missed cuts and a W/D. Also, missed the cut both times at VidantaWorld prior. But, if you get him in a matchup as an underdog, you could look to the fact he leads the TOUR in relation to par from outside 200 yards. If there is a place for him to turn his season around, it might be here.

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