The Five: Which top players are trending toward late-season surge?

The PGA TOUR season has reached an inflection point. With the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday on tap this week and the U.S. Open to follow soon after, the time to round into form in a meaningful way is dwindling. After the U.S. Open, only one major and one Signature Event remain on the calendar as top players fight for playoff positioning and season accolades.

So, which players are already laying the groundwork for a late-season surge that could define the closing stretch of the TOUR season? Let’s go through five possibilities.

Scottie Scheffler

Really? The golfer primed for a breakthrough is the dominant world No. 1? Well, let us explain.

The version of Scottie Scheffler that will tee it up at the Memorial this week is a far better golfer than the one who turned up for the WM Phoenix Open fresh off a win. He’s hitting his driver much better after spending the early parts of the year trialing different models. He’s hitting his irons better after an uncharacteristic lull through the West Coast. He’s starting tournaments faster, eschewing the first-round issues that also plagued him in the season’s early goings.

He’s a much more complete golfer than he was to begin the year. Yet the one stat that matters above all else – wins – has not changed since his season debut at The American Express. That’s ripe to change.

Just glance at Scheffler's stats for a moment:

• SG: Tee-to-Green: first
• SG: Off-the-Tee: third
• SG: Approach: 15th
• SG: Around-the-Green: fourth
• SG: Putting: 15th
• SG: Total: first
• Scoring Average: first
• Birdie Average: first
• Bogey Avoidance: first

That’s not a stat profile of a one-time winner. He’s underachieved this year. No major victories. No Signature Event wins. It’s only a matter of time before that changes.

Then there’s the history that’s well within reach. He could become only the second player to win three straight Memorials. In two weeks at the U.S. Open, he could become the seventh player to win the career Grand Slam. That’s how you break out as the world No. 1.

Justin Thomas

Slowly but surely, Justin Thomas is working himself into his pre-injury form. Thomas was sidelined for six months while recovering from back surgery, wiping out his entire offseason and pushing his season debut into mid-March. The results were mixed. He missed the cut by a mile in his return at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, but in his second week showed his vintage with a T8 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. That proved to be more of a blip than a sign of a quick turnaround. He struggled over the next two months, notching non-descript finishes at the Valspar Championship and Masters before disappointing in his title defense at the RBC Heritage.

A massive caveat accompanied all of those results. It’s fair to expect rust after a long layover. Nobody was panicking; they were just on hold, waiting for the first sign of sustained success.

That has arrived. He finished T23 in Miami and 13th in Charlotte (Truist Championship), which led to his best result of the year, tied for fourth at the PGA Championship. Then he kept the ball rolling with another tied 13th at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Patrick Cantlay

Will Patrick Cantlay go four years without a victory? That’s on the table if he does not win between now and the BMW Championship in August.

It’s a remarkable fact given that Cantlay remains one of the steadiest players on TOUR, even if his prominence has diminished without a victory. Could that change soon? His recent run of play suggests another peak week could be on the horizon. Cantlay has six top-15 finishes in 11 starts this year, including a streak of four straight that was snapped in his last start, a T35 at the PGA Championship. Cantlay has won the Memorial twice and notched two other top-five results at Jack’s place.

A sign that he’s going a little under the radar? Cantlay ranks 33rd in the Official World Golf Ranking but 11th in Data Golf’s ranking, indicating that the underlying metrics show a golfer who is underachieving relative to his talent.

A bet on Cantlay for the rest of this season is a bet that his results will start to normalize to his talent. Another motivation: the Presidents Cup. Cantlay has been part of every U.S. Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup since 2019. He’s 15th on the U.S. points list.

Nicolai Højgaard

Scheffler. Ludvig Åberg. Rory McIlroy. Cameron Young. Matt Fitzpatrick. Jake Knapp. Xander Schauffele.

Those are the only players this season with a lower scoring average than Nicolai Højgaard. Four of those seven have wins. Knapp was on his way before getting injured. Åberg has five top fives in his last seven starts, and Schauffele has finished third, T9 and T7 in THE PLAYERS and two majors this season.

Højgaard has maintained that level of play through more than half the season, yet has received little notoriety compared to those around him. How does that change? Winning helps, and if the Dane keeps knocking at the door, the recognition will come. He’s quickly vaulting into the conversation as the best PGA TOUR player without a win in his career. He’s won on the DP World Tour, but never stateside. That breakthrough is close.

Ben Griffin

Living up to his breakout 2025 season was always going to be a difficult task. Ben Griffin emerged from relative anonymity to win three times, push Scheffler at numerous other events (including last year’s the Memorial), and earn a spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team. He completely altered the trajectory of his career.

And after all that, perhaps we should have expected a letdown. Well, after some disappointing results to begin his year, Griffin is showing signs of that form. He finished 10th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, third in Miami, tied for 14th at the PGA Championship and third again at the Charles Schwab.

Whether he can get back into the winner’s circle will be reliant on improving his iron play. Griffin was 22nd in approach play last year but has dropped below the top 130 this season. His recent form is buoyed by strong putting and driving weeks, but to find that consistency again, he needs to get his irons in order.

Why should you be optimistic? Well, Griffin’s 2025 iron performance wasn’t an aberration. He was elite in 2024 and above average in 2023. This year is the anomaly. With some good results in the bag and some confidence behind his sails, the approach play is bound for positive regression.