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Feb 14, 2024

The Five: Signature storylines at The Genesis Invitational

7 Min Read

Need to Know

A one-of-a-kind view of Rory McIlroy’s wedge game at The Riviera Country Club

A one-of-a-kind view of Rory McIlroy’s wedge game at The Riviera Country Club

    Written by Paul Hodowanic

    Adam Scott was asked Tuesday what it was like to return to The Riviera Country Club. The interviewer could hardly get the question out before Scott jumped in.

    “Well, it's always a highlight of my year playing here,” he said.

    Scott’s sentiment is widely shared. The annual return to Riviera is one of the highlights of the PGA TOUR season for players and fans alike. History runs deep here.

    “As nearly perfect as a man could make it,” Alister MacKenzie once quipped of Riviera.

    The George C. Thomas Jr. design will again play host to one of the best tournaments on the PGA TOUR schedule – The Genesis Invitational.

    The Five this week explores the top storylines to follow this week in the third Signature Event of the season.

    1. Rory McIlroy’s bounce back

    Rory McIlroy began the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am the same way he started the year: on fire.

    McIlroy was 6-under through 14 holes of his opening round at Spyglass Hill Golf Course, matching his excellent form from the DP World Tour in early January. He was runner-up at the Dubai Invitational before winning the Hero Dubai Desert Classic. And his success seemed to be continuing on the Monterey Peninsula.


    Rory McIlroy walks-in a putt for birdie at AT&T Pebble Beach

    Rory McIlroy walks-in a putt for birdie at AT&T Pebble Beach


    Then disaster struck.

    McIlroy played the final four holes of his first round in 5-over, including a two-shot penalty for an improper drop. McIlroy’s funk continued into the second round. When he made a double bogey on the par-4 fourth at Pebble Beach, McIlroy had played his last eight holes in 8-over. He went from tournament favorite to weekend afterthrough. His T66 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was his first result outside the top 25 since the Wells Fargo Championship last May.

    The performance was likely just an aberration, a few bad swings that spiraled. That makes his performance at The Genesis Invitational all the more intriguing. McIlroy hasn’t had to shake off a performance like that in nearly a year. Riviera will be a comfortable place for him to do it. McIlroy has five top-20s and three top-10s in seven appearances at Riviera. McIlroy's distance advantage will only be heightened with the course still wet from the record rainfall in Los Angeles. It’s shaping up to be a redemptive week for a 24-time PGA TOUR winner.

    2. Is the longshot streak nearing its end?

    Parity has permeated the early days of the 2024 season. Surprises have defined the season, from Grayson Murray’s emotional comeback at the Sony Open to Nick Dunlap’s historic win at The American Express, where he became the first amateur in more than 30 years to win on TOUR. Throw in the quick success of FedExCup leader Matthieu Pavon, who’s playing his first TOUR season, and it’s been a year for fans to be introduced to some new names. This year's six winners all entered the tournament with odds of 100/1 or longer to win.

    The Genesis Invitational could thwart that streak. At least, that’s what the statistics indicate. A glance through the tournament’s past results reveals Riviera brings out the best in the best. The top-10 Strokes Gained performers over the last five years of the event are a who’s who of ball-striking savants. In that stretch, three players have gained more than two shots on the field per round on average: Cameron Young, Max Homa and Viktor Hovland.

    For reference, Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy were the only players who gained more than two strokes per round on the PGA TOUR last year. Here’s a look at the 10 players who have reached such lofty heights at Riviera over the past five seasons.

    PlayerStrokes Gained: Total over last five seasons at The Genesis Invitational (minimum two starts)
    1. Cameron Young2.402
    2. Max Homa2.386
    3. Viktor Hovland2.053
    4. Collin Morikawa1.85
    5. Will Zalatoris1.803
    6. Patrick Cantlay1.736
    7. Scottie Scheffler1.538
    8. Adam Scott1.436
    9. Rory McIlroy1.412
    10. Sahith Theegala1.402

    Riviera is lauded as one of the great marvels of the golfing world. Nearly all golf’s most recognizable names have won at the venue: Arnold Palmer, Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Tom Watson, Johnny Miller and Nick Faldo (Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus are famously absent, however). Will one of golf’s great modern players join that list? It’s very possible. Tiger’s speed

    3. Tiger’s speed

    A Woods return is always accompanied by a firehose of speculation from the golf world, none more than this week at The Genesis Invitational. There are questions about his new clothing line, his new caddie and the ever-present concerns about how Woods is walking.

    None of that has much to do with how he’s actually playing. The key to understanding that will lie first in his speed numbers. That was among the most tangible highlights of Woods’ week at the Hero World Challenge last December, his first start since the Masters eight months earlier. Woods averaged 305 yards off the tee and was regularly putting it past his playing partners.


    Tiger Woods' swing through the years at The Genesis Invitational

    Tiger Woods' swing through the years at The Genesis Invitational


    “I drove it on pretty much a string all week, " Woods said. “Granted, these fairways are big. I felt like I had my ball speed up, which was nice, and I was hitting the middle of the face the entire week, which is nice. So it's not like I have to go and try and find something the next few weeks or something going into next year; what I've been working on is right there and maybe just tighten up a little bit.”

    What could another two months of training and practice do for Woods’ game? That remains to be seen. But the test at Albany was much friendlier than he will face at Riviera. It was hot and humid with wide fairways and firm turf when Woods made his December return in The Bahamas. Expect Riviera to play wet and long off the tee with narrower fairways. Temperatures could be in the high 40s or low 50s when Woods tees on Thursday at 9:25 a.m. local time. That’s when the rubber hits the road, and we see just how good Woods feels physically and with his swing.

    4. Clinging to the Aon Next 10

    In the lead-up to the two most recent Signature Events – the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational – the Aon Swing 5 was the primary pathway for those on the outside to qualify for the field.

    That will change after this week when the Aon Next 10 resets to focus on this season’s FedExCup standings. For the first two Signature Events, the Aon Next 10 was filled by Nos. 51-60 in the final standings from last year’s FedExCup Fall. Following this week, the top 10 players in this season’s FedExCup, not otherwise exempt, will earn spots in Signature Events. The current projections have plenty of new faces.

    Current Aon Next 10Projected Aon Next 10
    Beau HosslerMatthieu Pavon
    Ludvig ÅbergLudvig Åberg
    Ben GriffinGrayson Murray
    Taylor MontgomeryJustin Thomas
    Matt KucharChristiaan Bezuidenhout
    Nick HardyThomas Detry
    J.J. SpaunMark Hubbard
    Sam RyderNicolai Højgaard
    Luke ListCharley Hoffman
    Alex SmalleyKevin Yu

    Åberg is the only golfer projected to stay within the Aon Next 10, while the other nine players are on the outside looking in. Can any of the nine charge to get back into the projected standings? Or could The Genesis Invitational be their last Signature Event for the foreseeable future? The players will have several more weeks to play their way into the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, the next Signature Event on the schedule. The Aon Next 10 standings won’t finalize until after the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. But with increased FedExCup points available at Riviera this week, and many of their Aon Next 10 competitors not in the field this week, it’s a prime opportunity to improve positioning now.

    Hossler is currently No. 11 in the projected Aon Next 10 standings, less than 15 points behind Yu, while every other member of the current Aon Next 10 has at least a dozen players to pass in order to remain in the top 10.

    5. How will Riviera hold up?

    The record-setting storm system that caused the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to be reduced to 54 holes will once again play a factor this week. More than 12 inches of rain dumped on Riviera during the storm. A little over a week later, the storm’s effect still lingers on the course.

    Early reports from players on-site indicate the greens have remained firm while the fairways are still significantly wet. That combination will put an even greater emphasis on driving distance, with balls stopping quickly in the fairway and leaving longer approach shots into firmer greens.

    No rain is forecasted on Thursday or Friday, but chances will slowly increase this weekend as a trough of low pressure over the Pacific Ocean approaches California. A few showers may become possible on Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers are anticipated overnight Saturday through daybreak Sunday. Showers will decrease in coverage for Sunday morning before increasing to scattered coverage for Sunday afternoon.

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