FedExCup top-50 bubble ‘as important as it gets’ heading into final round in Memphis

MEMPHIS, Tenn. – No one needs to explain to Maverick McNealy how high the stakes are this week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship – and what lies ahead for those able to advance.

Two years ago, McNealy walked off the 72nd hole in Memphis on the right side of the bubble. He was projected to finish No. 50, but could only watch from the airport as other players ultimately passed him, and he finished No. 53. The slide meant the difference between continuing in the FedExCup Playoffs and heading home.

This week, he arrived at TPC Southwind back on the bubble, starting the week at No. 50, knowing there’s work to do to make it to next week’s 50-man BMW Championship. But the spoils of advancing are well worth the effort.

“I’d say the (top) 50 bubble is about as important as it gets on TOUR,” McNealy said after a third-round 69 that moved him into a tie for 22nd. McNealy is still projected at No. 50, but the thinnest of margins: less than four FedExCup points separate him from both Brian Harman (No. 51) and Matt McCarty (No. 52).

Those qualifying for Bellerive next week not only keep hopes alive of making the 30-man TOUR Championship, but they solidify their 2027 schedule. Making it to the BMW Championship means exemptions into each of the Signature Events next season and increased opportunities to play against the world’s best.

“I’d get to play against those guys for about half my schedule, which would be awesome. It would give me the ability to know where I’m going to be in a given week,” McNealy said. “Because if you’re in the Signature Events, you can pick your schedule.”

Harman has made up ground this week, having started at No. 65, but there’s work still left to do. The former Open champ is already assured of playing all four majors in 2027 thanks to his 2023 win at Hoylake, but he’ll need to crack the top 50 to earn access to each of the Signature Events. He’ll start the final round in a tie for sixth, meaning there is ample upside to pick up extra points – but a slip down the leaderboard will prove costly.

“Kind of wherever you are on TOUR, you’re on some kind of bubble. You’re either trying to make the TOUR Championship, or you’re trying to make the Presidents Cup team, or you’re trying to keep your card or trying to win for the first time,” Harman said. “I think that’s what makes our game great. I think that’s what’s super interesting about golf is there’s 15 different golf tournaments going on out here, not just the guy trying to win.”

With McNealy and recent TOUR winner Michael Brennan moving back inside the top-50 projections with strong third rounds, there’s now only one change to the BMW field based on the 54-hole standings in Memphis. Sungjae Im (T2) is projected to move from No. 53 to No. 35, knocking out McCarty (No. 48 to No. 52).

Brennan didn’t have the top-50 bubble in mind heading into last week’s Wyndham Championship, where a win vaulted him from No. 105 to No. 47. He bounced across both sides of the projected bubble during the third round but sees only upside heading into what could be the last 18 holes of his postseason.

“I feel like when I’m out on the golf course, it’s something that is easy to put behind you and just try to focus on what’s going on,” Brennan said. “First full year (on TOUR), grinding out the (top) 50, it’s probably a good spot to be. Learning-wise, it’s a good experience. Hopefully I just play great and I don’t have to worry about it.”

McNealy explained that he’ll enter the final round with a concrete target in mind. If he shoots a 4-under 66, in his estimation, “it’s going to be really hard for me not to get through.” It’s an unusually specific goal, especially for a player in the middle of the pack, but one that he feels will get the job done.

“If anything, it kind of frees me up coming down the stretch,” he said. “If I need a couple, just hit my putts with a foot firmer pace and maybe take on a flag or two.”

Some will spend Sunday focused on the tournament leaderboard. Others will have a score in mind with one eye on the bubble projections. Those that land on the right side of the top-50 cutoff will have ample reason to exhale, even if the spots will be dearly earned during one more round at steamy TPC Southwind.

“I’ll be trying to shoot it super low and trying to win the golf tournament. That will be my goal,” Harman said. “We’ll start with that and see where it takes us.”