Several FedExCup Playoffs mainstays are in precarious positions at THE NORTHERN TRUST, needing a successful week in order to advance to the BMW Championship. Meanwhile, other players who are mathematically locked into the BMW are looking another step ahead, knowing that a strong performance at Liberty National can help propel them into the TOUR Championship at East Lake.

Using player performance data, course fit metrics, historic trends and more, Twenty First Group ran 10,000 simulations on how the next two weeks will shake out at THE NORTHERN TRUST and BMW Championship. The results gave us the projected likelihood for each player to keep his streak going and make it to either the BMW or TOUR Championship.

RELATED LINKS: Twenty First Group | FedExCup Standings

This week, we took particular interest in players with active streaks but who needed to make a move in order to keep those runs alive. Here are some bubble players with streaks hanging in the balance the next two weeks:

Adam Hadwin
BMW Championship streak: 4 years
Projection to advance in 2021: 31.2%

Currently 96th in the FedExCup standings, Adam Hadwin has significant work to do in order to make it five consecutive appearances at the BMW Championship. That’s not to say it will be impossible for Hadwin to achieve: in 2020, six players moved from outside the bubble into the top 70, and three did it from the 90th position or lower. Russell Henley, the biggest mover of the group, finished tied for eighth at the 2020 NORTHERN TRUST to leap from 101st to 61st in the standings.

Hadwin has lost strokes to the field tee-to-green, but his elite putting has kept him in the Playoff mix. The Canadian is 16th on TOUR this season in Strokes Gained: Putting, an improvement of 50 spots over a season ago. On average, Hadwin gains more than half a stroke per round on the field with the putter this season, and loses a little over one-tenth of a stroke per round everywhere else.

There’s reason for optimism, though, heading to Liberty National. Hadwin not only closed with a pair of 66s on the weekend to finish in a tie for 10th place at the Wyndham Championship, he led the field in Greensboro in greens in regulation.

Jason Day
BMW Championship streak: 8 years
Projection to advance in 2021: 22.1%

Jason Day needs to make an even bigger move this week. Sitting at 110th in the standings, Day would need to make a bigger leap into the top 70 than any player in either 2019 or 2020, the two years since the Playoffs shifted from four events to three. The lowest position of any player to move into the bubble in that span was Harold Varner III, who was 102nd in 2019. Twenty First Group gives the former world No. 1 Day a 22.1 percent chance of bringing everything together and moving on to Caves Valley next week.

Five years ago, Day led the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting. Three seasons later, he ranked second in the statistic. In 2020-2021, Day has merely been an above-average putter, gaining a little more than one-tenth of a stroke on the field putting per round (ranked 93rd of 206 qualified players). At his peak, Day’s putter was a menace to fields, as he converted 37 percent of birdie-or-better opportunities in 2015. This season, that number is just over 29 percent, tied for 135th on TOUR.

Gary Woodland
BMW Championship streak: 8 years
Projection to advance in 2021: 15.9%

Needing his best week of the season in order to move on to the BMW Championship, Gary Woodland can lean on some strong course history at Liberty National. He finished tied for second here in 2013, one shot behind winner Adam Scott, and has made eight straight starts in the BMW Championship. Only Rory McIlroy (nine straight) holds a longer active streak.

Perennially one of the best drivers on TOUR, Woodland has not been himself in that facet of the game this season, as he ranks T-144th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. That deficiency has rippled throughout his statistics, as he’s dipped to 98th on TOUR in birdie average, a stat he ranked 5th in just two seasons ago.

Tony Finau
TOUR Championship streak: 4 years
Projection to advance in 2021: 61.5%

At 23rd in the FedExCup standings, Tony Finau has done what previously seemed inconceivable for him: He’s gone seven straight starts without a top-10 finish. The marvelously consistent Finau is in a good position to make it to East Lake for the fifth year in a row, but what was once a lock now has a sliver of statistical doubt. This is an interesting couple of weeks for Finau – strong play would not only solidify his place in Atlanta but might also help push him over the top for a pick from U.S. Ryder Cup Captain Steve Stricker.

Putting like Stricker this week wouldn’t hurt. In four of his last six measured events, Finau has lost strokes to the field putting. In his last appearance at Liberty National, at the 2019 NORTHERN TRUST, he lost more than half a stroke per round to the field on the greens.

Patrick Reed
TOUR Championship streak: 7 years
Projection to advance in 2021: 62.8%

Fittingly, Captain America is the last player to win a PGA TOUR event with the Statue of Liberty featured prominently in the background. Patrick Reed won the 2019 NORTHERN TRUST at Liberty National, buoyed by an excellent performance with his driver (second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee). A return to that form would be a welcome sight for Reed, as that’s the lowest of his Strokes Gained rankings in the 2020-21 season (109th).

Only three players have qualified for the TOUR Championship each of the last seven years: Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama and Reed. Currently 22nd in the standings, he has a better than 62 percent chance of making it eight straight trips to East Lake.