Horses for Courses: Expect Wyndham Clark's driver to put him ahead at Baycurrent Classic

This week on the PGA Tour is the Baycurrent Classic, hosted at Yokohama Country Club for the second consecutive season. Golfers continue their final push to earn eligibility for the 2027 season while positioning themselves higher in the FedExCup Fall standings.

Before we get into the golf course, it’s important to note the schedule. Since this tournament is hosted in Japan, we’ll have a very early start time stateside, or a very late one Wednesday night, depending on how you look at it.

Another bit of housekeeping: This is a 72-player, no-cut event. That means the odds will be shorter across most markets, and golfers will have four full rounds to climb the leaderboard even if they struggle across the first two days.

Xander Schauffele (+1000 at DraftKings Sportsbook) is back to defend his title, and last year’s tournament didn’t give us much information about what skill set is required to win here. The biggest takeaway from looking at the top 20 was that driving prowess appeared to be highly correlated with success.

Sure, shorter hitters found their way inside the top 20, including Japan’s Takumi Kanaya (+10000). But golfers such as Schauffele, Michael Thorbjornsen (+2500), Rico Hoey and Min Woo Lee (+2200) all succeeded here while leaning heavily on their ability off the tee.

That makes sense, right?

The par-71, 7,322-yard parkland-style course is relatively easy off the tee. The fairways are tree-lined but fairly wide, and it could be even easier this season after multiple trees were removed from the property. The rough, at roughly 3 inches, isn’t especially daunting either.

Golfers can swing away, and that should favor the longer players in the field.

One of the first metrics I looked at was which golfers have gained the most strokes off the tee across their last 36 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Data via Betsperts

• 1. Doug Ghim
• 2. Keith Mitchell
• 3. Xander Schauffele
• 4. Kristoffer Ventura
• 5. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
• 6. Michael Brennan

The defending champion, Schauffele, comes in third on that list. Keith Mitchell (+4500), who played very well here last season and finished inside the top 10, ranks second. Last week’s runner-up, Doug Ghim (+2200), is No. 1.

Still, I don’t think this isolated bit of data is enough for us to determine that driving is the only thing that matters. We have just one year of course history, and even that is limited.

We don’t have enough data to make any bold statistical correlations.

So instead, I also want to look at Strokes Gained: Total and identify which golfers are entering this tournament in the best form. Or, put more simply, who is playing the best golf in this field right now?

Strokes Gained: Total (last 36 rounds)

• 1. Ben Kohles
• 2. Wyndham Clark
• 3. Doug Ghim
• 4. Kevin Yu
• 5. Michael Brennan
• 6. Ryan Gerard

Ben Kohles Top 20, including ties (+155)

It’s hard to deny that Ben Kohles (+6000) is playing some of the best golf of anyone in this field.

He’s still searching for his first PGA Tour victory, but the metrics jump off the page. Kohles ranks first in the field across the last 36 rounds in Strokes Gained: Total, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and first in SG: Approach. He’s also 22nd off the tee, which is more than good enough this week, and his putter has been rolling, ranking 12th across that same stretch.

The results back it up.

In 13 starts last season, Kohles made 11 cuts and finished inside the top 40 in 76.9% of them. He contended multiple times, and his approach numbers were consistently strong, except for his T29 at the Wyndham Championship and T15 at the ISCO Championship, when he lost strokes on approach.

If this turns into a pure bomber’s paradise where driving distance overwhelms everything else, it probably isn’t the perfect setup for Kohles.

But he’s already produced strong finishes on driver-heavy courses. He finished T13 at the Bank of Utah Championship and ninth at the 3M Open.

Kohles has been one of those golfers where, when his game is on, everything seems easy.

Right now, I’m riding the hot hand.

Wyndham Clark to win (+1600)

It’s hard to argue that Wyndham Clark isn’t the best in this field right now, yet the odds have him as the third-favorite golfer.

I think that’s wrong.

Clark ranks second in this field in SG: Total across the last 36 rounds and picked up three wins this season. More importantly, those wins came on different types of golf courses. He showed he can win at difficult courses, as well as crush birdie fests.

Clark put himself in contention time and time again last season, and one of the biggest reasons was how well he drove the ball.

He’s always been able to launch it off the tee. The difference now is that he’s keeping the ball in play far more consistently.

His putter is scorching hot, too. Clark ranks second in this field in SG: Putting across his last 36 rounds, which is a dangerous combination when paired with his distance.

Yokohama has only two par 5s, so while I’d love to have a few more scoring opportunities for a player with Clark’s length, he also dominates par 4s. With the back nine's difficulty, it will be important for Clark to score on those early opportunities.

I also like that Clark hasn’t played nearly as much golf recently as some of the other players in the field. Maybe that means he comes out a little rusty, which would keep me away from a first-round leader bet. But across four rounds, I can see him hanging around before making his move on Saturday or putting together a big finish Sunday.

Austin Smotherman winning last week at around +10000 briefly cooled off what had been a strong run for favorites, but I think we could see the top of the board respond here.

When you have a smaller field and a golf course where driving appears to be one of the biggest separators, the range of realistic winning outcomes gets smaller.

That has me looking much more toward the top of the board this week.

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