The first Signature Event of the PGA TOUR season has arrived, and the stage couldn’t be much better. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am returns to one of the most iconic settings in the game.

As has been the case the last two years, the tournament format looks a little different from what it did previously. With a field size of 80 golfers and no cut, the traditional three-course rotation is gone. Instead of bouncing between Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club, players will only rotate between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill over the first two rounds.

After 36 holes, Saturday and Sunday’s rounds will be played exclusively at Pebble Beach.

While three of the four rounds will be played at Pebble, most of the data focus will lean in that direction. That doesn’t mean Spyglass Hill should be ignored. Historically, it’s the tougher test of the two.

The 7,071-yard, par-72 Spyglass Hill is a good blend of exposed, coastal holes and tree-lined fairways as the course moves inland. The layout demands both shot shaping and discipline off the tee.

Pebble Beach Golf Links is slightly shorter at 6,989 yards and plays as a par 72. It presents a different test than most of the courses on the early-season schedule. It’s shorter, less demanding off the tee, but that does not make it easier. Eight of the 18 holes play over par.

Both courses are relatively tight and rank among the shorter setups players will see on TOUR. Because of that, I expect many players to frequently club down off the tee.

The greens here are often a major talking point. Pebble’s putting surfaces average around 3,500 square feet, which are some of the smallest on TOUR. That puts a premium on approach proximity, but even elite iron players are going to miss their share of greens. The average GIR rate from the fairway here sits at just 75.3%, which is nearly seven percent lower than the TOUR average — making a reliable short game essential.

Top golfers in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last 36 rounds (per Betspertsgolf.com):

1. Keegan Bradley
2. Stephan Jaeger
3. Matt Fitzpatrick
4. Harry Hall
5. Jason Day

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000 at DraftKings) immediately stands out from that list. He checks almost every box you want to see at Pebble Beach. Elite around the greens. One of the more accurate drivers in the field. Top 10 in this field on approach.

He arrives in form, too. A top-10 finish at the WM Phoenix Open and a victory at the DP World Tour Champions in November show that he’s swinging it well.

The only hesitation comes from the wedge approach play.

At Pebble Beach, the highest concentration of approach shots comes from 50 to 100 and 100 to 150 yards. Those ranges show up 26.4% and 20.4% more often than the TOUR average. Fitzpatrick ranks 69th and 48th in the field from 50 to 100 and 100 to 150 over the last 36 rounds. Neither number is good enough to bet with confidence.

That’s a theme you’ll hear this week. Wedge play is everything.

This is not a golf course that you can’t overpower too often. Defending champion Rory McIlroy (+1300) is a perfect example. For years, McIlroy was inconsistent with his wedges. Then, prior to last season, he steadily improved in that area.

He finished T66 here the year before his win. The difference? His approach numbers flipped from -4.13 stokes to +2.5. Once he was dialed in with his wedges, he dominated Pebble Beach.

It just goes to show how important success is at 50-100 and 100-150 yards.

Only Collin Morikawa (+5500) and Si Woo Kim (+2500) rank inside the top 10 in both buckets. But the name that jumps off the page for me is Justin Rose (+2700).

Rose is playing some of the best golf of his career. He’s coming off a dominant win at the Farmers Insurance Open, gaining +18.9 strokes to the field. That’s one of the best single-week performances we’ve seen in the last five seasons. He also won the FedEx St. Jude Championship in August and has climbed back to No. 3 in the Official World Golf Ranking.

Course history isn’t overly predictive here. Pebble ranks just 26th on TOUR in that category. But it’s still hard to ignore Rose’s resume here. He won here in 2023, finished T11 in 2024, and added a T3 last season. His profile matches. Accurate off the tee. Elite wedge players. Comfortable on Poa.

The outright price is nearly half his regular price, so the number might be a little tight.

Rose Top 20 (with ties) at -105 on DraftKings is the better angle. Form, fit and success at Pebble. It’s everything you need when trying to find value.

Best value on the board

Pierceson Coody Top 20 +178 | Top 10 +445

It’s been an impressive start to the season for Pierceson Coody (+5700). He opened with a T13 at the Sony Open, followed by a T18 at The American Express, a T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open. That’s four straight quality finishes. During that stretch, he gained with his irons in three of four starts and gained tee to green in each of those finishes.

This will be his first start at Pebble Beach, but his statistical profile is one that we must back. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks inside the top 25 from 50 to 100 and 100 to 125 yards. He’s hitting over 60% of fairways. Last season, he ranked first in birdie average and fourth in birdies or better gained. He’s also one of the better Poa putters in this field.

Coody is ready for a major breakout. Why not at a Signature Event?

Tommy Fleetwood to win +2800

Let's be honest. Scottie Scheffler (+310) is probably going to win this tournament. If you want to play it safe and bet on the world No. 1, I don’t have any objections. If you prefer to bet on Fleetwood in the "winner without Scheffler" market, I get that, too. However, if you’re searching for someone who can go toe to toe with Scheffler or McIlroy, Fleetwood at this price deserves some consideration.

Fleetwood hasn’t had the most success at Pebble Beach. He hasn’t finished better than T22 and has lost strokes putting in two of his last three trips here. There is some room for forgiveness there. Last year, he arrived in the middle of one of the worst putting stretches of his career, losing strokes on the greens in five of six starts before the event.

From a ball-striking standpoint, Pebble Beach is an obvious fit.

Fleetwood hits about 65% of fairways and ranks among the most accurate drivers in the field. If he chooses to lean on the driver while others club down, as McIlroy did last year, he could have a significant advantage.

He leads this field in Birdies or Better Gained and is excellent from 50 to 150 yards. He’s also a positive Poa putter, ranking 18th in this field over the last 36 rounds.

The narrative around Fleetwood was never about talent. It was about closing on the PGA TOUR. He answered that last August with a win at East Lake, then followed it with another DP World Tour victory later in the year. Now that’s put to bed, I expect him to win multiple times on TOUR this season.

In an 80-man field, this price feels better than some of the numbers we were seeing on him late last season. If you’re looking beyond Scheffler, Fleetwood is the name that makes the most sense.

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