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Horses for Courses: Familiar test awaits at FedEx St. Jude Championship

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Horses for Courses

Golfbet Roundtable: FedEx St. Jude

Golfbet Roundtable: FedEx St. Jude

    Written by Mike Glasscott

    The first of three FedExCup Playoffs events, the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, provides a familiar test for the qualified field of 69 players. Opening in 1989, TPC Southwind hosted a PGA TOUR event annually in every season. Hideki Matsuyama (+3500) lifted the trophy in 2024 and became the third player, after the first Playoffs event moved to Memphis, Tennessee, to open the FedExCup Playoffs with a victory at TPC Southwind. Making his sixth appearance, he was knocked out in a playoff in 2021 and shared 16th in 2023. Four of his five visits, he cashed inside the top 20 and posted 15 of 16 rounds at par or better during that stretch, including four of his last five at 65 or 64. His previous three events in Memphis produced an aggregate of 42 under par.

    The 2023 FedEx St. Jude winner Lucas Glover (+6000), finally cracked the code on his sixth visit after earning solo third in 2022. Glover, who ranked No. 78 in 2024, did not qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs and was not eligible to defend his title. His last eight rounds are all in the 60s, and he returns to the track where he led the field in Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance (3) in 2023.

    Players listed below are competing this week; 2025 ranking; Odds presented by FanDuel Sportsbook

    RankPlayerOdds
    1Scottie Scheffler+280
    2Collin Morikawa+3300
    4Tommy Fleetwood+2500
    5Shane Lowry+5500
    6Keegan Bradley+4500
    7Sepp Straka+4000
    8Russell Henley+3000
    10Kurt Kitayama+6000
    11Patrick Cantlay+3500
    12Si Woo Kim+9000
    13Daniel Berger+5000
    14J.J. Spaun+5000
    15Viktor Hovland+3500

    Providing landing areas that average only 25 yards, doglegs shifting both left and right, and more water in play off the tee than is usual, TPC Southwind is not for the timid off the tee. Averaging 4,500 square feet, the completely redone green complexes provide the third-smallest targets on TOUR so far in 2025, ranking behind Pebble Beach and Harbour Town. TifEagle Bermudagrass replaces Champion Bermudagrass on the newly expanded putting surfaces. Avoiding the water from the tees pushes uncommitted shots towards 75 bunkers and three inches of Bermudagrass rough. With new grass and new hole locations on the shortest of grass, getting to the green will be the most challenging part of the week. Controlling the bounce and spin on approach shots out of the rough or from the fairway will set the foundation for scoring. Before the changes made after the 2024 event, the last six champions all ranked in the top nine in this category. Start here!

    The only two-time winner on this course qualified this week is Daniel Berger (+5000). Picking up two wins on his first two visits in 2016 and 2017, he could not complete the “three-peat” in 2018. He returned in 2020 and earned solo second, three shots behind Justin Thomas (+2500), who has never cashed outside T30 in his five visits. His previous visit in 2021 saw him add four more rounds in the 60s to cash T5. Eighteen career loops at TPC Southwing have resulted in 14 rounds in the 60s. Berger is the only player entered with more than three top-five or top-10 paydays.

    Harris English (+4500) joins Thomas, Matsuyama, Berger and Glover as former champions playing on this layout in 2025. The tall glass of water won on debut in 2013 and added T10 in 2017. The 2021 edition saw English lead by two after 18, 36 and 54 holes before he found the water twice on the back nine and slid to solo fourth. In the two previous FedExCup Playoffs events, he earned T61 and T52, and just three of his last eight loops were under par.

    On debut for the 2019 edition, then known as the World Golf Championships – FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200) posted four rounds in the 60s for T4 and returned the following season with three more and earned T6. He added his third T6 or better payday in four starts when he posted four rounds in the 60s for T5 in 2022. Making his seventh start, he cashed T18 or better four times.

    FedEx St. Jude Championship notables

    • The field of 69, highlighted by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, includes 46 of the top 50 from the Official World Golf Ranking. World No. 2 Rory McIlroy qualified but is not entered.
    • All 10 players ranked on the cusp of qualifying for the BMW Championship next week at Caves Valley Golf Club (No. 45 to No. 55) are competing. Only the top 50 will qualify and advance.
    • TPC Southwind transitioned to a par-70 in 2005. The 72-hole tournament record is 261 (19 under), set by Dustin Johnson (not qualified) in 2018.
    • TPC Southwind hosted for the first time in 1989. The course record of 61 was last achieved by Justin Rose in Round 3 of 2023.
    • The field will not be cut after 36 holes during any of the three FedExCup Playoffs events.
    • Two of the three previous FedExCup St. Jude Championships have required a playoff.

    Entered this week

    PlayerRank/RoundsOdds
    Harry Hall1+6500
    Chris GotterupT2 (42)+4500
    Ben GriffinT2 (42)+4000
    Ryan GerardT4 (40)+8500
    Emiliano GrilloT6 (39)+12000
    Scottie SchefflerT6 (39)+280
    Sam BurnsT10 (38)+4000
    Sam StevensT10 (38)+10000

    While scoring should be more difficult with the new hole locations and firm putting surfaces, rounds in the 70s at TPC Southwind can rarely be found on the top players' cards at the end of the week. The 2024 edition featured three players in the top 30 who posted two rounds of four at 70 or worse. The 2023 edition featured nine rounds worse than 70 from players in the top 30, while the 2022 edition featured the first time playing the FedExCup St. Jude Championship in the FedExCup Playoffs. No players in the top 30 over either edition had more than one round worse than par.

    The par-70 layout played under par, on average, over the last editions, all six featuring limited-field events (FedExCup Playoffs and World Golf Championships, three each). The winning score ranged from 17 under par (2024) to 13 under par (2020). The 2025 edition added 45 yards to the scorecard. Hole No. 5 is now 529 yards (par 4) after playing 485 yards in 2024.

    Oddsmaker’s extras

    • Scottie Scheffler (+280): Making his eighth start, he will look to build on a solo fourth in 2024, his best payday to date. He has three top-15 results in his last five.
    • Xander Schauffele (+1800): The co-runner-up from 2024 added his second top-10 payday in five years (T6, 2020). He has posted 25 of 28 rounds at par or better over seven starts.
    • Viktor Hovland (+3500): The 2024 co-runner-up improved over the previous season, going T2-T13-T20-T36-T59.
    • Sam Burns (+4000): Defeated in a playoff in 2021, the Louisiana native cashed T20 in 2022 and T5 in 2024.
    • Patrick Cantlay (+3500): Owns a 24-under-par aggregate with a T12 in 2024 and a loss in a playoff to Glover in 2023. Six of his last eight rounds are 67 or better.
    • Russell Henley (+3000): In seven previous visits, he’s cashed T30 or better four times, including T6 in 2023 after T7 in 2016.
    • Tommy Fleetwood (+2500): The Englishman shared fourth on debut in 2019 and shared third in 2023 before earning T22 in 2024.

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