Horses for Courses: Justin Lower leads way in Paspalum paydays

The Mexico Open at VidantaWorld has a new name for the 2025 edition, but the Greg Norman design on the Pacific coast hosts for the fourth consecutive year.

The 2024 tournament, won by PGA TOUR rookie Jake Knapp (+4000) in just his ninth start on the circuit, will again play to par 71 but will shrink 20 yards and tip at 7,436 yards of Paspalum on the scorecard. Knapp, who led the field in Birdies (25), Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach, Par-4 Scoring and Par-3 Scoring wiped out the trend of veteran, star champions (Tony Finau and Jon Rahm) winning south of the border. Posting rounds of 64 and 63 to lead by four after 54 holes, the UCLA man led by four shots heading into Sunday, eventually winning by two shots over Sami Valimaki (+7500) in his first visit.

Making his fourth start, Patrick Rodgers (+2200) has never cashed a check outside a share of 10th place in three previous visits to Nuevo Vallarta. The average winning score is 20-under par, and the former Stanford man has never signed for a round above 70 from 12 previous loops. Posting a tournament total of 13-under-par each of the three years, his scoring average of 67.75 is one of the best in the field from players with more than two appearances.

Top Paspalum paydays in 2024

Players listed below are competing this week.* - won in playoff

For the first time in four events this season, Paspalum grass will be in play. With only three previous tournaments at VidantaWorld, we can find clues elsewhere who enjoy playing on this surface, usually found seaside.

Posting a round of 65 or 64 in each of his first three visits, Stephan Jaeger (+2500) appears to be closer to picking the lock. Last year, he signed for T3, his best result, on the back of four rounds in the 60s. The German, who has a win on TOUR, cashed T18 and T15 the previous two seasons, with each result containing a round of 71, even par. Yet, his career scoring average is 68.08, nothing to sneeze at.

Not only has Justin Lower (+6500) figured it out at VidantaWorld, but he has produced his best results on TOUR in events played on Paspalum grass. In his second start after T64 in 2023, he opened with 70 and added rounds of 66 before closing with 68 on Sunday to secure a share of third place. As shown above, he made two more deposits after T4 or better finishes on Paspalum in 2024.

While Rodgers is the only player in the field to hit the top 10 in all three starts, Carson Young (+7500) also has been a quick study. Posting 12-under in each of his two starts, the former Clemson man cashed T8 last year after missing the top 10 by a shot in 2023. Ranking in the top five in Fairways hit during both visits, he has circled 39 birdies over the last two years and shared second last fall on Paspalum up the coast at Los Cabos.

Notables

• Every champion registered in the top two in Bogey Avoidance.
• All three champions have ranked in the top four in Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green.
• With afternoon seabreeze, the resort course provides ample room off the tees and features large greens by TOUR standards that average over 7,000 square feet.
• Accounting for the breezes, the greens will not run more than 11 feet on the Stimpmeter.
• The 2025 edition is the second consecutive event held in February. The first two events were held in late April/early May.

Oddsmaker’s extras

• Sami Valimaki (+22000): One of many first-time players last year to crack the top 10 with solo second, the man from Finland opened with 64 and played in the final group with Knapp. Ranking second in Putts per GIR, he only needed 105 strokes on the greens for the week.
• Kurt Kitayama (+2000): The Californian, who opened with 64 and shared second place by a shot in the inaugural edition, returns to add to his total of 23 birdies and one eagle. He ranked second in Par-Breakers for the week.
• C.T. Pan (+5500): Posted T29 on debut in 2022 and returned with T3 last year. All eight loops are par or better for an average of 68.25.
• Akshay Bhatia (+1400): Making his only start in the 2023 edition, the left-hander, fresh off solo second on Paspalum in Puerto Rico in March, added a fourth-place payday to his ledger. Rounds of 65-63 Friday and Saturday, plus 22 birdies and an eagle, put him in the final three-ball with Finau and Rahm. Now, he’s the favorite!
• Erik van Rooyen (+6000): Opening with 64 in 2023, he went one better, 63, in 2024. The rounds after the cut are not as kind, but he cashed T8 and T33 in his only two visits. The South African also won the inaugural event at El Cardonal in the fall of 2023.
• Greyson Sigg (+6000): In three starts, he’s racked up T33, T18, and T19 in 2024.
• Jacob Bridgeman (+8000): Making his first start, I’ll point out his finishes, shown above, on Paspalum. Last year, four players who finished in the top 12 had never played a competitive round at VidantaWorld, including the winner, solo second, T6 and T8.

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