Horses for Courses: Chalk talks ahead of Arnold Palmer Invitational
6 Min Read
Key stats for picking a winner at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
The Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard marks the second week of the Florida Swing and the fourth of eight Signature Events of 2024.
Horses for Courses
Rory McIlroy (+900) will look to add to his six top-10s in his previous nine starts. Posting 18-under in perfect weather during the 2018 edition, the Ulsterman established the tournament scoring record on TifEagle greens (added in 2016).
Leading on the back nine last year, McIlroy couldn’t complete his second win and settled for a share of second place. Making his 10th start, he has posted eight results of T13 or better.
Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.
| Rank | Player |
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy |
| 3 | Patrick Cantlay |
| 4 | Collin Morikawa |
| 5 | Viktor Hovland |
| 8 | Tommy Fleetwood |
| 9 | Xander Schauffele |
| 10 | Ludvig Åberg |
| 11 | Rickie Fowler |
| 13 | Corey Conners |
Ranking inside the top five in this category for the last six seasons, Bay Hill has provided a challenge from tee peg to TifEagle. The fairways, averaging 30 yards in width, play narrower than last week, but three inches of overseeded (rye) Bermuda will penalize those who don’t pay off the tee ball. Attacking the fourth-largest greens (7,500 square feet on average) on TOUR will require the pros to play boldly to win, but safely perhaps to contend. Taking on bunkers, water on nine of the 18 holes, and short-side misses will make for a quick exit. It's not a coincidence the top five players listed above are in the top seven choices at the BetMGM Sportsbook.
It’s also not a coincidence that Scottie Scheffler (+650) is the first choice. Making his fourth start, the 2022 champion also shared the lead on the back nine last year in his defense before signing for T4. Never breaking par in second or fourth rounds, the Texan has won, shared fourth and shared 15th in three visits over the last four years.
| Rank | Player |
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler |
| 2 | Brian Harman |
| 3 | Ludvig Åberg |
| T8 | Patrick Cantlay |
| 10 | Russell Henley |
| 13 | Brendon Todd |
| 14 | Stephan Jaeger |
| 15 | Max Homa |
| 16 | Jason Day |
| 17 | Tom Kim |
| 20 | Eric Cole |
| 21 | Rory McIlroy/Xander Schauffele |
Players posting single digit counts for bogeys has been a rare occurrence. Over the last four editions just 13 players have kept it under 10 bogeys for the week. When Arnold Palmer stated, “You must play boldly to win,” the elite players must pick and choose those moments. Elevating the field and the event since the 2021 edition has increased the quality, and yet, the average winning score has hovered just above 8-under. The 2024 edition will feature winds blowing from four different directions on the four scheduled tournament days. Grinding out pars and avoiding compounding errors will push players up the leaderboard on the weekend.
Kurt Kitayama (+6600) broke major trends during his debut victory last season. The Californian, who now resides in Las Vegas, became the first player since 1990 to win in his first try. Breaking a streak of 20-something winners, the 30-year-old was only the second 30-something to win in the last six editions. Co-leading the field in Fairways and GIR, he also ranked second in SG: Putting and Bogey Avoidance. Winning by a shot, he survived a final-round triple bogey. Like Austin Eckroat at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches last week, he won on his 50th start on TOUR.
| Rank | Player |
| 3 | Denny McCarthy |
| 5 | Xander Schauffele |
| 6 | Max Homa |
| 8 | Sam Burns |
| 11 | Matt Fitzpatrick |
| 12 | Andrew Putnam |
| 13 | Eric Cole |
| 14 | Tommy Fleetwood |
| 16 | Harris English |
| 17 | Sahith Theegala |
| 19 | Adam Scott |
| 20 | Keegan Bradley |
After switching to TifEagle from Bentgrass, half of the last eight champions ranked first or second on the shortest of grass. Running 12 feet on the Stimpmeter, the fourth-largest greens on TOUR will challenge the nerves from distance and anything inside 10 feet. Bay Hill has ranked in the top 20 in three of the last four years in three-putt avoidance. Lagging putts on undulating greens is a skill just like finding greens in regulation. The 2023 edition saw the Arnold Palmer design rank inside the top 20 in Putting Average for the fifth time in six seasons.
Jason Day (+3300) won the first edition on the TifEagle greens in 2016. A maestro on and around the greens, the Australian picked up T10 last season and has only finished outside T31 once from eight weekends. Making his 13th start, the former Lake Nona resident has played this event off-and-on since 2008.
Oddsmaker’s Extras
Harris English (+4000): Running T2-T26-T9 over his last three starts at Bay Hill, the former Georgia Bulldog squared only four bogeys last year. Posting all four rounds at par or better, he ran his streak of paydays to five straight.
Jordan Spieth (+1800): Holding the lead on Sunday last year, he was unable to close the door. Settling in at T4 for the second time in two visits over three years, the Texan will feel he is owed one here. Playing for the first time in 2021, he posted 9-under through 54 holes before a final round 75 pushed him back to T4. Last year saw three more rounds of 70 or better extend his total to six from eight loops.
Viktor Hovland (+1400): Making the trip for the sixth consecutive season, the Norwegian rattled off his two best paydays over his last eight rounds. Opening 69-66 in 2022, he led McIlroy by two heading into the weekend before rounds of 74-75 dropped him one shot from a playoff with Scheffler. Last year, posting 66 in Round 3, he sat one off the 54-hole lead and played in the final group with Kitayama. Closing with 75, he dropped to T10. His last four Sundays have produced 75, 74, 78 and 77.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800): Cashing T14 in 2023, the Englishman broke a run of four straight T10 or better. The runner-up from 2019 has posted T27 or better from seven weekends in nine visits.
Keegan Bradley (+5500): After falling short of the weekend on his first visit, he went on to win the PGA Championship later that summer. The next 11 editions at Bay Hill did not require an early checkout from the Lodge. Picking up his best paydays on Bentgrass, he appears to finally have figured out the TifEagle. Cashing T10-T11-T10 over the last three years, eight of his 12 rounds have been par or better, including 64 in Round 3 in 2021.
Patrick Cantlay (+1600): Making his debut last winter, the Californian cashed T4. Posting three rounds of 71 or better, including 68 to open and close, one of just nine rounds in the 60s on Sunday.
| OWGR TOP 30 (cuts made/starts) not listed above | Most Recent | Top 10s | Top 25s | Notes |
| 5. Xander Schauffele (2/2) | T39 2023 | 0 | 1 | T24 2023; five of eight rounds above par |
| 7. Wyndham Clark (2/3) | T34 2023 | 0 | 0 | 68th 2020 |
| 8. Max Homa (4/4) | T14 2023 | 1 | 3 | T10 is the best; T24 the worst |
| 10. Brian Harman (4/10) | MC 2023 | 0 | 2 | MC last three visits since 2019 |
| 11. Ludvig Åberg (1/1) | T24 2023 | 0 | 1 | Nothing worse than 73 as an amateur |
| 12. Tommy Fleetwood (6/7) | T61 2023 | 3 | 4 | T3 2019; T10 twice (2021, 2017) |
| 14. Collin Morikawa (2/3) | MC 2023 | 1 | 1 | T9 2020; T64 2018 |
| 16. Tom Kim (1/1) | T34 2023 | 0 | 0 | 72 or better three of four rounds |
| 18. Sam Burns (4/6) | MC 2023 | 1 | 1 | T9 2022 |
| 20. Hideki Matsuyama (8/9) | MC 2023 | 1 | 4 | T6 2016; eight straight busted 2023 |
| 21. Cameron Young (2/2) | T10 2023 | 1 | 2 | T13 2022; six of eight 72 or better |
| 22. Sahith Theegala (1/2) | T14 2023 | 0 | 1 | 72 or better all four rounds |
| 23. Justin Thomas (2/2) | T21 2023 | 0 | 1 | T49 2015 |
| 24. Matthieu Pavon | First appearance | |||
| 26. Chris Kirk (8/11) | T39 2023 | 2 | 6 | T5 2022, T8 2021; five straight cuts made |
| 27. Sepp Straka (0/4) | MC 2023 | 0 | 0 | one round under 73 |
| 28. Nick Taylor (3/6) | MC 2023 | 0 | 0 | T32 2022 |
| 29. Russell Henley (4/7) | T53 2023 | 0 | 1 | T13 2022; cashed last three visits |
Bookmakers Bonus: Puerto Rico Open
The TOUR will also be in action at the Puerto Rico Open at the Grand Reserve Golf Club.
Ryan Brehm (+17500): The big hitter paid off the trend in his victory in 2022. In his last three visits, he's cashed T35, T11 and win. Posting 13 rounds of 72 or better from 14 tries, not many will be more comfortable at the Grand Reserve Golf Club.
Nico Echavarria (+4000): The 2023 winner returns to defend his first and only win on TOUR. Posting 21-under 267, the Colombian tied the tournament scoring record on debut.
Nate Lashley (+3300): Posting 37-under from three visits, he secured T3 last year after T7-T8 in his first two visits.
Martin Trainer (+6600): The champion from 2019 is a notorious Paspalum putter and wind player.
-Odds courtesy of BETMGM.COM-
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