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11H AGO

Bolton: Big names lead fantasy golf charge into Aronimink

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Golfbet Roundtable: Making picks for the PGA Championship

Golfbet Roundtable: Making picks for the PGA Championship

    Written by Rob Bolton

    Just when you probably were hoping for a bit of a break, you got one. And now you’re treated to another.

    Truist Championship breakthrough winner Kristoffer Reitan occupied just 2.2% of the rosters in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. While data isn’t available, undoubtedly, he was a captain for an even smaller split in the game. So, for most intents and purposes, we dodged a 140-point FedExCup bonus in the Signature Event.

    Of the top-five most-owned at Quail Hollow Club, only Ludvig Åberg (T8) recorded a top 10. Cameron Young (T10, sixth-most owned) and Tommy Fleetwood (T5, eighth-most) were the only other two inside both the top 10 on the final leaderboard and among shares of ownership, so it was a good week to deviate as roster fatigue set in during this heavy sequence of two majors and three Signature Events, all consecutively.

    Additionally, when you contrast Reitan against the winners of the previous premier tournaments in Segment 2, there’s an even greater appreciation for him as an outlier. Rory McIlroy was the fourth-most owned at the Masters, Matt Fitzpatrick was third-most owned at the RBC Heritage and Cameron Young was the most owned at the Cadillac Championship. You never know how things will shake out, but gamers who were able to make a move at Quail Hollow did so with complementary pieces like Rickie Fowler (T2, 14%) and Alex Fitzpatrick (fourth, 7.1%). And that’s OK. Tip your visor.

    We can’t expect the same luck at the PGA Championship. However, we can mitigate the fatigue with non-members. Four are in my Power Rankings, three of whom appear in my fantasy lineup. Because there are zero worries about needing even as many as three starts for any of them, you can stretch out the usual suspects with what’s left of theirs, if any.

    As fate has it, Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion this week at Aronimink Golf Club, next week at THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson and in three weeks at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday that concludes Segment 2. Should he retain his commitments to the last two, it’d give him six starts in all during this phase. He rarely costs us, but with the surging likes of Young and Matt Fitzpatrick joining McIlroy on the very short list of sensible captains, you’re motivated to act on Scheffer when you want to and not necessarily when you need to. That freedom not only makes it easier to make decisions, but it also makes the game more fun to play.

    As always, if you’re struggling to manage what you have left to burn, connect with me publicly or privately on X and we’ll troubleshoot together.

    Captain

    Scottie Scheffler … It’s a compelling conundrum for the No. 1 in my Power Rankings, especially if you have only one start remaining. The PGA Championship is the only of his last three anticipated stops in Segment 2 not contested on the same course on which he’s defending, but the major yields the most FedExCup bonus points. What to do?

    If you’re pacing, as I am but barely, apply pressure now. No matter how he starts the tournament, he’s likely to contend, if not win, so give yourself the best chance to retain your advantage and build around him with other plausible contenders, non-members included. Whatever you decide to do, chase the FedExCup bonus points as fantasy scoring likely will be muted on the challenging par 70.


    Scottie Scheffler's 159-yard approach sets up birdie on No. 17 at Cadillac

    Scottie Scheffler's 159-yard approach sets up birdie on No. 17 at Cadillac


    If you’re chasing, there’s merit to holstering and hoping for the “not-Scheffler” winner. Position yourself with a stronger angle next week at TPC Craig Ranch or later at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Just take it one week at a time. If you burn your last start now, you risk settling for a push with any of your targets. Remember that none of us can take advantage of his impact all of the time.

    Other considerations

    • Rory McIlroy ... If you’re holstering Scheffler, the No. 2 in the Power Rankings is your guy. As solid a fit as any in the field and fresh off his successful title defense at the Masters, where it was wondered if he’d remain motivated.
    • Cameron Young ... While Scheffler and McIlroy were an easy and respective 1-2 in the Power Rankings, the winner of THE PLAYERS Championship and the Cadillac Championship wasn’t as automatic a No. 3, but a No. 3 he is, nonetheless. He’s built for lots of ballparks, Aronimink among them, so he’s ideal if you’re chasing. This also is an instance when understanding the ownership philosophies of your competition might be your most valuable variable. Zagging with any of these guys steps forward as the objective because all three figure to see each other as the last to finish on Sunday.

    Rounding out the roster

    I had to play aggressively in the final round at Quail Hollow and exhaust my final start for Young, but he shot 74 to finish T10. Now I need to defend against his loss, and that I have zero starts remaining for Matt Fitzpatrick, who had done his job in Segment 2.

    My starters

    • Tyrrell Hatton
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Jon Rahm
    • Scottie Scheffler (C)

    My bench

    • Ludvig Åberg (1)
    • Bryson DeChambeau (2)

    Careful

    For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

    • Collin Morikawa ... With his recent and unresolved back soreness, and with his first child due very soon, it boils down to the simple question: Can we trust him? Despite appearing on 13.2% of rosters saved at last check, he’s too risky.

    Collin Morikawa drains 17-foot birdie putt on No. 12 at Cadillac

    Collin Morikawa drains 17-foot birdie putt on No. 12 at Cadillac


    • Viktor Hovland ... Just one top 10 on the season and one top-30 finish in his last five starts, the Norwegian continues to underperform relative to expectations. Although his touch around greens has improved, it can’t be ruled out that it’s come at the cost of inconsistency with his kind of ball-striking for which he’s known best.
    • Shane Lowry ... Unfortunately, he’s been reliable for this section across his last seven starts, none of which resulted in a top 20. There have been flashes, but he’s failed to save rounds in which his form has escaped him. No top 25s in his last five starts in majors, either.
    • Hideki Matsuyama ... If the PGA Championship were, say, three months ago, he’d probably have been in a prominent position in the Power Rankings. However, his game has tailed enough to warrant concern even on a track like Aronimink that feeds directly into his skill set as a premium ball-striker.

    Returning to competition

    Marco Penge … Aside from a T4 at the Valspar Championship immediately after his newborn child was released from intensive care at the hospital, the rookie from England has struggled to assimilate and ranks 78th in the FedExCup. Now he’s on the mend after withdrawing early from the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic due to undefined “health reasons.” He’ll figure things out in the long-term, so continue to remain patient, but abstain in the meantime.

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET today.

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