Bolton: Ride with or against chalk using momentum, course history

DraftKings odds movement: Whose stock is up at Masters?
Written by Rob Bolton
For veteran gamers, the Masters can feel like an oasis for front-runners in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. We’re treated to the smallest field of the majors with a relatively friendly cut that rewards golfers who have course experience. And because no other course all season rewards experience more than Augusta National Golf Club, the only heavy lift is remembering to save a roster.
Newer gamers laugh at that premise. Sure, perhaps in the era before the Signature Events, that mindset had merit, but the Masters no longer is only for the chalk.
As detailed in last week’s column, Segment 2 is rife with premier competition. Lodged between the Masters and the PGA Championship are three consecutive Signature Events for which there is no cut. Only the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, which concludes Segment 2, will whittle the field after two rounds. This means that each of the next five and six of the last eight stops will yield beefed-up FedExCup bonus points.
Toss in the array of concerns over Augusta National whisperers Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa, and suddenly waiting each of them out for similarly lucrative performances at any of the remaining five tentpole contests steps forward as a viable strategy.
Into the vacuum slides the invaluable timing of non-members at the Masters. From former winners Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed to familiar fixtures Bryson DeChambeau and Tyrrell Hatton – none of whom will require more than two starts in Segment 2 – the pressure roster management is eased, just not for the aforementioned front-runners. With fewer reasonable blocks to play, the first major now tilts toward chasers as an opportunity.
Even if you’re sold on chalk like it’s 2023 all over again, this is the real-time dynamic of the current iteration of the game, so be sure to map out where you plan on burning your remaining starts for the guys for whom you wish you had more than three. As an aid, scroll or swipe to the bottom of the page for a comprehensive breakdown of future possibilities.
Captain
Matt Fitzpatrick … The No. 1 in my Power Rankings. To truly respect this week’s decision based on your unique situation, an if-then flowchart would be required. In my position of pursuit, I’m leveraging all of the Englishman’s upward arrows at the moment, but it’s unlikely that he’d be my pick if I were leading my little league. Foreshadowing...
Another step in the calculus is if Scheffler and/or McIlroy are rostered. Either deserves to be the captain every time he plays, so the determination is binary if either is among your six.
The easier pick is the defending champ because he can just play, no longer burdened by the weight of completing the career Grand Slam. While worry about his health is nonzero, love for the course, obvious fit and personal pride all feed his competitive juices once balls are in the air.

Matt Fitzpatrick sinks 14-foot birdie to win Valspar Championship
Meanwhile, for gamers who rely more than 50 percent on analytics, you’re advised to wait until Scheffler solves his issues on approach. That’s a bona fide headwind with enough evidence that mutes his course history and otherwise greatness that many wonder how he’s way down at No. 12 in my Power Rankings. As a reminder, he’s finished a respective T12, T24 and T22 in his last three starts.
Other considerations
- Cameron Young ... Assuming you’re abstaining from Scheffer and McIlroy, Young is a proper pivot. At last check, he ranked eighth in ownership percentage at just under one-third of saved rosters. That’s surprisingly low given his impressive close for victory at THE PLAYERS Championship and proven record at the Masters, so relative to other choices, his impact is greater.
- Ludvig Åberg ... The Swede is fourth in ownership percentage having been reserved by a little more than half of gamers thus far. His case for the designation is similar to Young’s. Together, they’re part of the new wave of emerging chalk at Augusta National and for whom striking at the right time is the objective.
Rounding out the roster
My starters
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Matt Fitzpatrick (C)
- Jon Rahm
- Cameron Young
My bench
- Xander Schauffele (1)
- Ludvig Åberg (2)
Careful
For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.
- Collin Morikawa ... Out of undeniable respect for his track record at Augusta National, he’s No. 15 in the Power Rankings, but he’s a massive risk until he’s healthy enough to perform without a major injury making the decision for him.
- Jordan Spieth ... For a guy for whom course history has been an automatic contributor to our decisions for a long time, it’s no longer as impactful. Last week’s T63 at the Valero Texas Open is the latest evidence. Meanwhile, one of the 2015 champ’s unintentional takeaways will be in observing how McIlroy glows in the wake of achieving the career Grand Slam at Augusta National a year ago. Spieth’s own narrative for accomplishing the same will be rekindled at the PGA Championship in five weeks.
- Brooks Koepka ... Because his putting has been operating like a coin flip since returning to the PGA TOUR, his role is best as a contrarian in DFS. Conservative gamers won’t give him a second thought despite his quintet of trophies in the majors and strong record at Augusta National, but those preferring sharper angles rooted in a foundation of significant success to elevate confidence for a singular performance on the biggest of stages won’t mind 2-1 odds for heads.
- Chris Gotterup ... For all of the value that this week’s advice presents, Augusta National still isn’t the test on which you should lean on debutants. Quite simply, you never need to go that deep no matter how much success you could cite elsewhere.

Chris Gotterup sinks birdie to win in playoff at WM Phoenix Open
Returning to competition
- Aaron Rai ... The bold-face type in this lane is dedicated to Morikawa and his extended complications from an injured back that limited him to one hole across his last two commitments, but the Englishman also is of note since he withdrew early from the Texas Children’s Houston Open with a sore neck. He’s cashed in seven consecutive majors, including in his debut at the Masters with a T27 last year, but he has a miss-the-cut bet written all over him following the malady that itself trailed a pair of missed cuts on the Florida Swing. He hadn’t missed a cut anywhere since late May.
Future possibilities
NOTE: This section consists of notables in this week’s field for whom this tournament could be one of more than three starts you may consider burning in Segment 2 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple tournaments are listed (e.g., “1” for strongest, “2” for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change throughout Segment 2 no matter how many tournaments remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment.
- Ludvig Åberg ... Masters (1); the Memorial (2)
- Patrick Cantlay ... Masters (3); RBC Heritage (1); the Memorial (2)
- Corey Conners ... Valspar (5); Valero (1); Masters (2); RBC Heritage (4); Truist (3)
- Matt Fitzpatrick ... Masters (2); RBC Heritage (1)
- Tommy Fleetwood ... Valspar (3); Masters (4); RBC Heritage (1); Truist (2); Charles Schwab (6); the Memorial (5)
- Viktor Hovland ... Valspar (2, defending); Masters (3); Charles Schwab (4); the Memorial (1)
- Sungjae Im ... Masters (3); RBC Heritage (1); Truist (4); Charles Schwab (5); the Memorial (2)
- Si Woo Kim ... Masters (4); RBC Heritage (3); Byron Nelson (1); the Memorial (2)
- Brooks Koepka ... Masters
- Shane Lowry ... Valspar (2); Masters (3); RBC Heritage (1); the Memorial (4)
- Hideki Matsuyama ... Valero (3); Masters (1); the Memorial (2)
- Rory McIlroy ... Masters (2, defending); Truist (1); the Memorial (3)
- Collin Morikawa ... Masters (1); RBC Heritage (3); Charles Schwab (4); the Memorial (2)
- Justin Rose ... Masters (2); Charles Schwab (1)
- Xander Schauffele ... Valspar (3); Masters (1); RBC Heritage (4); Truist (2); the Memorial (5)
- Scottie Scheffler ... Texas Children’s (3); Masters (2); RBC Heritage (4); Byron Nelson (5, defending); Charles Schwab (6); the Memorial (1, defending)
- Jordan Spieth ... Valero (3); Masters (4); RBC Heritage (1); Byron Nelson (5); Charles Schwab (6); the Memorial (2)
- Justin Thomas ... Valspar (1); Masters (3); RBC Heritage (2, defending); Truist (4)
- Cameron Young ... Valspar (2); Valero (3); Masters (1); RBC Heritage (4)
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