Draws and Fades: Sam Burns has right weapons to upset Scottie Scheffler at FedEx St. Jude Championship

As much as Friday served as a firm reminder of who runs the show on the PGA TOUR, Saturday was defined by resistance. After Scottie Scheffler briefly opened a window for the competition to flood the room, he did what he does best. Steadied the wheel, kept his lead, and he will tee off on Sunday as an even bigger favorite to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship than he did entering moving day.

The runaway we thought could happen never materialized, and it was his closest friend who made sure of that. Sam Burns caught fire with a bogey-free 62 to get to 11-under, two shots back, and he will accompany Scheffler (13-under) in the final pairing on Sunday. Sungjae Im was tasked with that Saturday, and his 67 gained him a shot on the lead in the end.

Eight players are currently within six shots of Scheffler, making this tournament feel much more wide open on the final day, in part because TPC Southwind has done an excellent job of penalizing poor shots and rewarding great ones.

The other lurking storyline on Sunday is the FedExCup top-50 cutoff that will determine next week's BMW Championship field and players' tournament selection for 2028. Names like Maverick McNealy, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman and Max Homa will compete with the understanding that every shot matters and could make the difference between moving on and going home.

Here are some draws and fades that I like ahead of the final round, and updated odds via DraftKings Sportsbook to win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship:

• -235: Scottie Scheffler
• +480: Sam Burns
• +770: Sungjae Im
• +3400: Tommy Fleetwood
• +5900: Jake Knapp

Draw: Sam Burns to win (+480)

I spent most of Friday arguing against the value of chasing someone in the outright market because they were up against Goliath. Saturday changed the situation and the math. At +480 odds, you have to ask yourself if you believe Sam Burns can erase two strokes and overtake Scottie Scheffler to win once out of every four times. To that, I say he can.

He’s the one player within striking distance who is most equipped for the task at hand on Sunday. He’s got great course history at TPC Southwind, is arguably playing the best golf of his life and he has a secret weapon with which he can make up a ground in a hurry: the putter.

There is something to be said about momentum here and the fact that Burns can essentially attack Sunday with a nothing-to-lose mindset. If you are going to take a chance on somebody dethroning Scheffler from this tournament, Burns is the guy.

Fade: Maverick McNealy

Currently, the last man into the field for next week's BMW Championship, sitting right at 50th in the FedExCup, is Maverick McNealy. There is an enormous amount of pressure on his shoulders in the final round, and that can often work negatively against a player trying to play safe and protect his position on an ultra-demanding golf course.

The symptoms of layered pressure often show up with the putter, something McNealy is normally proficient at, and he ranks fifth in the field in putting through the first three rounds. The other areas of his game are a concern and have been masked by catching fire on the greens. If McNealy gets tentative on Sunday, we could see his name moving in the wrong direction.

He entered the week 114th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is also problematic for his prospects of making a run. A couple of loose swings with irons can lead to disaster around TPC Southwind. McNealy is a talented enough player to survive all of this, but I would much rather bet against him in a matchup given the circumstances.