Draws and Fades: How big stars off early Sunday can steal top finish at Royal Birkdale

SOUTHPORT, England – There has been an unmistakable pattern through three rounds at Royal Birkdale, and it has become impossible to ignore.

Get out early or get out of luck.

Three different players have carded 62 before most fans had even finished rubbing the sand out of their eyes over the last two days, and with tee times pushed an hour earlier for Sunday’s finale, another dawn patrol charge feels entirely plausible.

Scottie Scheffler even remarked that the weather has been unusually docile for an Open Championship, comparing the routine to California golf where mornings are almost placid before the afternoon winds show up.

The numbers back it up. Across Saturday’s afternoon wave, only Sam Burns and Ludvig Åberg managed anything better than 69. If someone is going to conjure a number and vault up the leaderboard, brief history suggests it’ll happen while the air is still docile.

Let’s take a look at the outright odds heading into the final round of The Open Championship.

• Sam Burns (+142)
• Si Woo Kim (+465)
• Ryan Fox (+790)
• Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)
• Ryan Gerard (+1450)
• Ludvig Åberg (+1475)
• Lucas Herbert (+1750)
• Scottie Scheffler (+2600)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+2600)
• Jackson Suber (+3500)

For posterity, I’ll gladly leave my Sam Burns flag planted exactly where it was yesterday, where I picked him to win in this space.

If anything, we’ve watched Burns complete the metamorphosis from an excellent TOUR player into someone who looks entirely comfortable wearing the burden of major championship expectation. The golf has been immaculate, and continues a trend that he has shown in all the majors this year, especially at Shinnecock Hills.

With that established, I’d rather spend today’s bankroll hunting a couple of top-five markets.

There is simply too much volatility lurking among the players beginning the day at 4-under. One incendiary front nine before the wind rocks up, and suddenly the leaderboard could look completely different by lunchtime.

So let’s rerack and look the odds to finish in the top five at The Open after Round 3:

• Bryson DeChambeau (+122)
• Ryan Gerard (+120)
• Ludvig Åberg (+120)
• Lucas Herbert (+148)
• Scottie Scheffler (+180)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+178)
• Jackson Suber (+240)
• Jon Rahm (+310)
• Xander Schauffele (+360)
• Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+500)
• Shane Lowry (+530)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+590)
• Cameron Young (+780)

Xander Schauffele, Top 5 (+360)

This price immediately caught my eye. We’re talking about a two-time major champion, including a claret jug winner, who arrives after firing a polished 66 on Moving Day. The only reason Schauffele isn’t standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the leaders is a pedestrian opening 71 while everyone was still deciphering what Royal Birkdale wanted from them.

His underlying numbers back it up, with Schauffele gaining over three strokes tee-to-green on Saturday. He picked up another stroke with the putter and has now gained strokes in every major category for the championship.

Just as importantly, he’ll tee off among the 4-under contingent, meaning he should still find relatively welcoming conditions before the breeze. That group surrounding the lead possesses plenty of talent, but not much major championship hardware, whereas Schauffele goes home to a couple majors on his mantle regardless of result.

At better than 3/1 to crack the top five, this feels like an oddly generous number.

Cameron Young, Top 5 (+780)

This one requires a little more imagination, but that’s why they’re paying nearly 8/1.

For about 46 holes, Young looked like one of the handful of best players at Royal Birkdale. Then the back nine on Saturday happened.

Young spilt nearly two strokes with the putter during that closing stretch, turning what could have been another charge into a frustrating stumble. The encouraging part is that almost everything else remained intact. He still gained strokes off the tee and was essentially neutral across the rest of the bag.

That’s a profile I’m willing to buy. Players have increasingly realized that Birkdale’s baked-out fairways and whispy rough reward aggression. If you can launch it, this course has become surprisingly susceptible to power. Few players on Earth possess a higher power ceiling than Young.

With an early tee time likely keeping him ahead of the worst of the weather, I’ll happily take a swing at nearly 8/1.