Draws and Fades: Tom Kim, Jackson Suber offer early value at John Deere Classic

The opening round is in the books in the Quad Cities, and TPC Deere Run wasted no time reminding the field why this tournament can often turn into a sprint to the finish line. Soft conditions, manageable winds and attackable hole locations provide players with the freedom to stay aggressive and stack birdie opportunities.

The lowest rounds today came from the morning wave, with Lucas Glover and Zac Blair setting the pace with matching 8-under 63s. The scoring average for the morning wave was more than a full stroke easier on Thursday. There is little separation at the top with three players sitting at 7 under, including 50-year-old Zach Johnson, who is making his return from the PGA TOUR Champions to the John Deere Classic.

Glover earned his clean card on Thursday, as the 2021 John Deere Classic champion rekindled the flame with his irons, gaining four strokes on approach in the first round. The fairways firmed up a bit in the afternoon, and with tamer winds forecasted in the morning tomorrow, I expect to see a similar course read where the early tee times have the advantage.

With an abundance of contenders near the lead, including pre-tournament favorite Chris Gotterup, several books have shifting lines with 54 holes to play that present opportunity. There is too much golf left to overreact to a first-round number in these kinds of scoring conditions, and I’m keen on finding value positions that I expect to elevate tomorrow.

Updated odds to win John Deere Classic (DraftKings)

• +820: Chris Gotterup
• +1300: Stephan Jaeger
• +1450: Lucas Glover
• +1450: Zac Blair
• +2100: Lee Hodges
• +2100: Ben Kohles
• +2250: Michael Brennan
• +2400: Zach Johnson

Draw: Tom Kim To Win +2700 (DraftKings)

If you watched the afternoon featured group closely on Thursday as I did, you would have seen how beautifully Tom Kim struck the ball. His precision with the irons was on full display, and had it not been for an uncharacteristic three-putt on the 18th hole, his odds would be half this price.

I confidently backed Kim pre-tournament, and I’m going back for more ahead of the second round. The slump is over, and Kim is back trending positively after a T15 at the RBC Canadian Open and a shocking solo third-place finish at the U.S. Open.

We also understand the motivation. Kim is actively playing for a spot in The Open Championship and has one eye on earning his way to Medinah (the Presidents Cup) later this summer. On a course that a hot wedge-plus-putter combination can dominate, Kim is the name that I keep coming back to.

Draw: Top 10: Jackson Suber

Jackson Suber is the prototype player that I’m looking to buy in the positional markets for a course like TPC Deere Run. A 3-under 68 on Thursday should build foundational confidence, but doesn’t leap off the page until you take a closer look at how he got it done.

Suber was seventh-best in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, despite being in the more difficult afternoon wave. The round could have been special, but he struggled on the easy greens at TPC Deere Run, losing over two strokes putting and ranking 133rd on the day with the flat stick.

He’ll continue to stack birdie opportunities with his excellent ball striking, especially with an early morning tee time in the softest scoring conditions. The expectation is that he could make a serious run at the leaders if he can simply have an average putting day on Friday.

There’s a sneaky ceiling with Suber we have recently seen that is worth respecting. He backed up a recent fourth-place result at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson with another T4 in Canada a few weeks later. He’s only five back from the lead after an abysmal day putting, with plenty of time and room to navigate into position on Sunday once again.