Draws and Fades: Best bets for Sunday showdown at Charles Schwab Challenge

The field at the Charles Schwab Challenge was cut down to 75 players for the weekend. Those who made the final 36 holes struggled in Round 3 at Colonial Country Club. The scoring average was 71.2, and the field was 88 strokes over par. Rounds 1 and 2 were both played under par, including the 57 players who were cut.

The firmness of Hogan’s Alley caught everyone’s attention, including the 54-hole leader, Eric Cole (+270). Cole gained eight strokes on the field total Saturday when he carded a 63, tying the tournament low score for this week. A two-time runner-up on the PGA TOUR, Eric was interested in hitting fairways.

“The fairways are very tight and kind of dogleg and firm, so when you do hit a good drive, you really gain something on kind of the rest of the field,” said Cole.

JJ Spaun (+610) and Alex Smalley (+1250) are two outrights we have been tailing (or drawing) all week. Smalley shared a similar sentiment following his third round.

“I think the biggest thing is just trying to hit as many fairways as you can, because once you do hit the fairway, you can be a little more aggressive," Smalley noted. "As I mentioned earlier, if you're in the rough, you're playing a lot of defense.”

Why is hitting fairways so important? Perry Maxwell’s original layout at Colonial features several strategic doglegs. Finding the fairway with modern technology under firm conditions requires a smart game plan and a deft touch. Those two intrinsic skills define who makes a short draw list going into Sunday.

Draws

Russell Henley (+1000) is 10-1 on the DraftKings odds board to win. Henley leads the tournament in driving accuracy, hitting 81% of his fairways (34/42). It just so happens Henley has registered the number one total in GIRs (45/54) as well. If you haven’t added Spaun or Smalley the past two days, Henley has value going into Sunday from a ball striking perspective and is only three shots back.

Another straight flusher, a little further down the odds board, who catches my attention is Doug Ghim (+10000). Not to win, but to finish inside the top 10 (+164). The "Ghim Reaper" has been collecting fairways and GIRs. The putter lost strokes in two of the three rounds, but as the course gets firmer, hitting targets will help you climb the leaderboard. At T12, Ghim doesn’t have far to go to get inside the final 10.

Following Cole’s own words, only Mackenzie Hughes has hit fewer fairways. Speaking of Hughes, both of our Friday fades cashed. We are 4-0 this week on fading wagers. I’ll take Cole over 70.5 Sunday (+114). Eric only hit 16 fairways in Rounds 1 and 2, and is ranked 64th on the PGA TOUR in Sunday (or final round) scoring.

Ryan Gerard (+395) sits one shot off the lead heading into Sunday. Gerard’s putter has been excellent, gaining nearly eight strokes on the field through three rounds. Off the tee is another story entirely. Gerard is losing strokes to the field with his driver and has hit just 27 of 42 fairways (64%). Take Gerard to hit fewer than 8.5 fairways on Sunday (-104). We saw the firm conditions on Saturday reduce the size of these dogleg landing areas and increase the scoring average.

Charles Schwab’s current slogan is “Own Your Tomorrow.” With 18 players within five shots of the lead, and six of them looking for their first PGA TOUR win, the sponsor’s saying applies.

*- DraftKings odds