Draws and Fades: Matchups to back in Round 2 at Truist Championship
6 Min Read

PGA TOUR Highlights | Round 1 | Truist Championship
The opening round of the Truist Championship was suspended at 7:10 p.m. ET due to inclement weather, with roughly 19 golfers still needing to finish their rounds. Among them was Sungjae Im (+1800), who stood on the 18th hole at 7 under with a chance to tie clubhouse leader Matt McCarty (+700), who fired an 8-under 63.
The weather was the story for much of Thursday. The first round was delayed by one hour in the morning due to heavy rain, then pushed back another 30 minutes, with the first tee time moved to 12:30 p.m. Later in the day, more weather moved in and forced play to stop before the round could be completed.
The softer conditions played a major role. With preferred lies in effect and the rough playing shorter, players were able to attack Quail Hollow Club more aggressively than they could during the 2025 PGA Championship, which was also hosted here.
At that PGA Championship, Jhonattan Vegas (+35000) led after the opening round with a 7-under 64, but only three players shot 5 under or better. In Thursday’s opening round at the Truist, seven players reached 5 under or better despite a smaller field.
Still, even with the soft conditions and preferred lies, Quail Hollow showed it could be difficult if managed poorly. Several players finished over par, and the first-round scoring average is still only half a stroke under par.
Vegas’ week at the PGA Championship is a good reminder of how difficult it is to keep momentum here. Of the players who were T4 or better after the opening round, only Vegas finished inside the top five, at T5. Only two finished inside the top 10. The average finishing position for that group was 29th.
Even more telling, every player in that group had at least one round over par. Only two players in the entire field went the full tournament without posting an over-par round.
That PGA Championship setup was tougher, but the recent Wells Fargo results at Quail Hollow also show that a strong opening round can matter. Rory McIlroy (+1200) was second after the first round in 2024 and went on to win. Wyndham Clark was T7 after the opening round in 2023 and also went on to win.
The takeaway here is simple. A fast start at Quail Hollow gives you the best chance to win, because making up strokes at a difficult course is harder than it looks.
Credit goes to McCarty, who tied the lowest round of his PGA TOUR career and recorded 220 feet of made putts. That was the most by a player on TOUR since the 2025 Scottish Open. If he plays the way he’s been playing, he will be a tough man to beat.
Round 2 Matchup: Kristoffer Reitan (-150) over Lucas Glover (FanDuel)
I promise I won’t hand out too many -150 matchup bets and try to sell them as value, but Reitan’s (+2000) recent form deserves attention.
He finished T14 at the Cadillac Championship despite losing -3.89 strokes in the final round, according to RickRunGood data. His team finished T2 at the Zurich Classic after a huge eagle on 18.
At the Valero Texas Open, he finished T10 while producing one of the better ball-striking weeks in the field.
He opened this tournament with a 5-under 66, and it looks like he brought a hot putter.

Kristoffer Reitan makes birdie on No. 5 at Truist Championship
On the other hand, Lucas Glover's (+12500) game has been much harder to trust. His T14 at the Truist Championship was his best finish since the beginning of March. During that stretch, he also missed three cuts and withdrew from another event. Most of the issues have come off the tee and on the greens.
Glover opened with a 3-under 68, but it was a round largely carried by the putter. He lost strokes ball striking, which is not the profile I want to back at Quail Hollow against a player in Reitan who is trending much better.
Could Glover clean things up in Round 2? Sure. But based on what we’ve seen over the last few months, I would rather back the player with the better form and the better fit.
Round 2 Matchup: Ludvig Åberg (+110) over Xander Schaffele (FanDuel)
This is a matchup between two elite players, and I’m going against the guy with the stronger course history.
I expect Xander Schauffele (+1500) to play well this week, but I don’t think he should be this clear of a favorite against one of the most in-form players in the world.
Ludvig Åberg (+1800) is T20 despite ranking fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking during the opening round. The only reason he is not higher on the leaderboard is the putter. He lost 2.24 strokes on the greens.
Schauffele’s opening round was more questionable. He still needed to finish the 18th hole when play was suspended, sitting at 2 under from the fairway bunker. His round was held together by the putter, where he gained more than two strokes. Elsewhere, he lost strokes around the green and off the tee while playing close to even on approach.
This is closer to a coin flip than the price suggests. Both players fit Quail Hollow well, and Schauffele’s course history is legit. If you prefer him in this matchup, I get it. But with Åberg gaining strokes ball striking, and his putter facing a bounce back, I’m willing to take him in this match. I have this priced closer to -110 on either side.
Round 2 Three-Ball: Nicolai Højgaard over J.T. Poston and Brian Campbell (+100)
I don’t play three-ball straight bets often, but when I do, I want a clear skill-set edge. That is what I see with Nicolai Højgaard (+1300) in this group.
Let’s start with Brian Campbell. He has won multiple times on TOUR, but Quail Hollow asks a lot off the tee, and that’s where he struggled. He shot 1-over 72 and lost -1.46 strokes to the field. The biggest issues came off the tee and on approach, where he lost -1.31 strokes off the tee and -1.22 strokes on approach.
The course may be a bit too long for him.
J.T. Poston is another player I don’t mind fading here. He is 56th in this field in driving distance, and the long-iron profile is not strong enough for this setup. He ranks 66th in the field from 200+ yards. He opened with a 2-over 73, and I’m not a fan of him this week.
Højgaard is the player I want. His 5-under 66 in the opening round showed exactly why this course fits him. He gained 3.6 strokes ball striking, and while the putter was not hot, it was good enough.
He’s a perfect fit for Quail Hollow. He is 18th in this field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, fourth in driving distance, seventh in par-5 scoring, and third from 200+ yards over the last 36 rounds. He should have a great week, given the course fit.

Nicolai Højgaard sinks 12-foot putt for birdie on No. 4 at Truist Championship





