AUGUSTA, Ga. – The 90th Masters is once again wide open.

What seemed like it would become a runaway for Rory McIlroy turned into anything but on Saturday, as the leader and defending champ came back to the field on a day when most of the chase pack tallied birdies in bunches. A whopping -250 favorite entering the weekend, McIlroy is still the betting favorite to slip back into the green jacket – but the situation has shifted considerably.

McIlroy shares the lead with Cameron Young at 11 under, but four more players will begin the day within three shots of the lead. That group doesn’t include world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler – who bounced back from a rare over-par round in Augusta with a sizzling 65 to reach the fringe of contention.

Updated odds to win the Masters

• +150: Rory McIlroy (-11)
• +240: Cameron Young (-11)
• +600: Sam Burns (-10)
• +1000: Scottie Scheffler (-7)
• +1300: Shane Lowry (-9)
• +1500: Justin Rose (-8)
• +2200: Jason Day (-8)

So how should bettors approach the final round with at least seven realistic options for the green jacket? Which side of the final round pairing bears the most upside? Let’s dive in.

Shane Lowry (+1300) to win

Admittedly, I approach this with some hesitancy. Lowry hasn’t won as an individual on the PGA TOUR since his The Open triumph in 2019, and just last month he let one slip away in a big way at PGA National. We’re adding a few extra qualifiers here, but the last time Lowry won an individual tournament in the U.S. was the WGC in Akron back in 2015.

Of the lead group, I do think Young has the edge over McIlroy – both in terms of momentum and overall ball-striking – and I’d back him at +240 well before adding a McIlroy win ticket. There’s a reason that Data Golf lists Young (32.2%) with a better win equity than McIlroy (31.6%). But I’m intrigued by the high-price upside on Lowry, who was buoyed by an ace on No. 6 Saturday and heads into the final round just two shots back.

Lowry will benefit from a final-round pairing with Sam Burns, meaning he won’t be burdened by the spotlight that will follow McIlroy around the grounds on Sunday, and he’s second behind only Burns in greens in regulation this week (43 of 54). He’s striking the ball quite well, even when he’s not recording an ace.

Last year Lowry bristled at some media questions about his good friend McIlroy, noting that he was still trying to win the green jacket for himself. The opportunity for McIlroy to slip the green jacket on his shoulders is stuff he might not have dreamed of, but Sunday it could become a reality.

First-time Masters winner (-136) to win

This is an interesting prop market that has been updated throughout the week, with the “No” option currently sitting at +108. In backing the “Yes,” you’re essentially getting five of the seven names at the top of the odds board – all but McIlroy and Scheffler.

Scheffler’s third-round 65 was an admirable comeback, but I think he’ll need another similar score to have a realistic chance to win on Sunday. By getting the other contenders, including Young and Lowry, you’re getting a sizable chunk of win equity at a better price than what you might encounter with a “No” market on McIlroy winning.

It’s amazing to think, given where this tournament stood after 36 holes, that the odds favor a first-time winner. But I think there’s value in leaning into the chaotic element we saw unfold on Saturday, given that McIlroy’s ball-striking woes might not have enough time to course correct. In addition to Young and Lowry, you’ve got Rose and Day at 8 under plus Burns just one shot back. That’s a wide array of options if you’re banking on continued stumbles from the defending champ.

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