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Draws and Fades: Maverick McNealy among Sunday value picks

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Draws and Fades

Highlights | Saturday | Arnold Palmer | 2026

Highlights | Saturday | Arnold Palmer | 2026

    Written by Rick Gehman

    The 67-minute rain delay during the third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard could not extinguish Daniel Berger’s hopes of winning, but it did prevent the conclusion of the round before sunset. There are currently four players still on the course, including Berger, who is even par through 15 holes. He’s been in control of this tournament all week long and will have a chance to go wire-to-wire with a victory on Sunday.


    Daniel Berger converts par-5 birdie on No. 12 at Arnold Palmer

    Daniel Berger converts par-5 birdie on No. 12 at Arnold Palmer


    The closest player to Berger is Akshay Bhatia, who is currently 2-under on his round through 16 holes, and at 11-under he trails Berger by two shots. The next closest pack of players sit four shots back at 9-under with third-round play set to resume at 8 a.m. ET Sunday.

    While there are plenty of players ready for Berger to stumble, one of the big names — Rory McIlroy — won’t be around to pursue him on Sunday. He withdrew prior to his third-round tee time, citing back spasms. He will seek rest and recovery before his title defense at THE PLAYERS Championship next week.

    The chase pack is highlighted by Cameron Young, who fired a 5-under 67 that included five birdies on his second nine. He’s four shots off the pace at the conclusion of play. He’s not alone at 9-under — Sepp Straka and Collin Morikawa will also begin their final round at that number.

    Here’s a look at a few plays that have my eye heading into the final day in Orlando:

    Maverick McNealy, Top 10 Finish (+500 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

    McNealy’s weapon is the putter, and that has certainly been the case this week. He’s gained over two strokes putting, which puts him inside the top 15 in that category. However, while that is his best attribute, he hasn’t been solely reliant on the flatstick this year.


    Maverick McNealy hits 196-yard tee shot to 10 feet, sets up birdie

    Maverick McNealy hits 196-yard tee shot to 10 feet, sets up birdie


    Entering the week, he had gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts, which helped propel him to four top-25 finishes during that stretch.

    McNealy has really struggled on approach this week, hitting just 55% of his greens in regulation and losing nearly two shots to the field. Despite the struggles, he’s going to enter the final round in a tie for 20th, which makes me optimistic that he can find a decent finish without his best stuff. If he can just keep his ball in play on Sunday, he’ll likely move up the leaderboard.

    Adam Scott, Top Oceania (+475)

    The savvy vet is making his 16th start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, but it’s been a mixed bag of results in his career. He’s only earned three top-20 finishes and has missed four cuts. Despite the lack of really great results, he’s gained strokes in all four major categories in his career at Bay Hill.

    He’s mashing the ball off the tee, averaging 322 yards for the week — which ranks fifth in the field. We expect the hardest course setup on Sunday, which would play right into the hands of Scott, who has performed well in final rounds. He’s gained at least a stroke on the field in five of his last six final rounds.

    Adam Scott holes out 20-foot birdie putt on No. 8 at Arnold Palmer

    Adam Scott holes out 20-foot birdie putt on No. 8 at Arnold Palmer

    Cameron Young, Winner Without Berger (+440)

    Young has looked completely dialed in this week, and he’s knocking the cover off the ball off the tee. He’s gained over five strokes off the tee, which leads the field through three rounds. That’s thanks to ranking inside the top 10 in both driving distance and accuracy.

    Cameron Young sinks 3-foot birdie putt on No. 16 at Arnold Palmer

    Cameron Young sinks 3-foot birdie putt on No. 16 at Arnold Palmer


    From there, he’s missed just 13 greens in regulation, which is fourth for the week. And if that wasn’t enough, he’s been a positive putter to the tune of +1.23 strokes. It’s been a nearly unbeatable combination — aside from the unworldly performance from Berger this week.

    With the putting prowess that Young possesses, there’s actually an argument to be made that he’s underachieving with the putter this week. Statistically, there’s no reason to think Young will regress in the final round.

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