You can’t win The American Express on Thursday or Friday, but you can absolutely put yourself on the wrong side of the sportsbook if you ignore the context.

This tournament is unlike anything else on the PGA TOUR calendar. Three courses, three wildly different scoring environment and a cut that doesn’t come until after Saturday’s third round. That alone makes early leaderboards dangerous if you’re betting blindly off position instead of profile.

With calm desert conditions and virtually no wind, La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course have once again played as birdie factories, while the Pete Dye Stadium Course has offered the most rigid test of the trio, as in tradition at the TOUR’s yearly stop in La Quinta.

Two golfers sit at 17-under. Nine more are within three shots. Nearly 20 players are realistically alive, leading to some ripe mid-tournament plays just a brief step down the leaderboard. With scoring in a spot where 18-year-olds are almost breaking 60, this is not the week to panic or chase the very top of the board.

There is however, some juice to be squeezed based on who has played where thus far into the week.

Several of the biggest names chasing already have their Stadium Course round behind them, meaning their remaining path includes at least one more crack at the easier setups before Sunday’s final round back on the Stadium Course. That’s the window we want to attack.

Before we get into the strategy, let’s take a look at the updated outright odds after Round 2 at The American Express.

Odds to win The American Express after Round 2 (via FanDuel)

• Scottie Scheffler +150
• Si Woo Kim +340
• Ben Griffin +1300
• Wyndham Clark +1600
• Patrick Cantlay +1700
• Jacob Bridgeman +1900
• Blades Brown +2000
• Eric Cole +2500
• Rickie Fowler +3300
• Matt McCarty +3300
• Austin Smotherman +6000

Draw: Four names, one Ticket

Rather than planting a flag on a single short price, we are looking at a classic portfolio play.

The core idea is to target elite or ascending players who have already survived the Stadium Course and still have a scoring opportunity ahead of them on La Quinta or the Nicklaus Tournament Course. That’s exactly where Ben Griffin, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay and Jacob Bridgeman fit. A group of players with pedigree and staying power available at a discount.

All four sit at 13- or 14-under, all four are well within striking distance and all four are priced north of +1300, allowing bettors to split units evenly and still return a healthy profit if just one of them lifts the trophy on Sunday.

Ben Griffin (+1300)

Griffin continues to look every bit like the man who broke through as a three-time winner in 2025. His short game travels well on desert greens, ranking fifth in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and 21st in SG: Putting through 36 holes.

With one of the easier tracks still ahead of him, Griffin has a very real path to posting something in the mid-20s under par before Sunday even begins. At this number, you’re betting on both form and opportunity.

Wyndham Clark (+1700)

Clark had an embattled 2025 season to say the least but has shown a return to form thus far at PGA WEST. Length off the tee, aggressive iron play and seemingly refound confidence led him to a bogey-free 64 on Friday on the hardest course, and have him sitting second in the field in SG: Total.

Having already navigated the toughest track to near perfection, Clark is now positioned to run on Moving Day. If he gets hot with the putter on La Quinta, the market won’t wait around at +1700.

Patrick Cantlay (+1700)

One of the steadiest options in the group, Cantlay flashed with an opening 63 and then navigated his way to a 68 on the harder Stadium setup. The vet’s number holds value, as his ability to stack clean rounds once he’s in position is world class.

Sitting at 17th in SG: Approach, the fact that he’s already checked the Stadium Course box makes him far more appealing than names above him who still have to face it. This is the definition of a professional mover.

Jacob Bridgeman (+1900)

He might not be a household name yet, but true ballknowers know the deal. Bridgeman’s run into the top 30 of the FedExCup last season wasn’t an accident, and his 66 at the Stadium Course Friday shows why.

He’s comfortable going low, and ranks 10th and 20th this week in SG: Off the Tee and Putting, respectively, a dangerous combo. At nearly 20-1, this is the ceiling play that rounds out the card.

Obligatory Scottie Scheffler warning

Yes, Scottie Scheffler is the biggest danger. He’s the No. 1 player in the world for a reason, and he’s sitting atop the leaderboard. But context matters.

Scheffler still has the Stadium Course ahead of him so the move here is a bet on a brief speed bump while your stable takes advantage of the softer scoring opportunities. If one of these four can build a cushion before Sunday, suddenly that classic Scheffler charge has a lot more pressure attached to it.

Spread the risk, trust the rotation and let the course do some of the work for you.