Throughout the first round, the question at the Baycurrent Classic was: How long would the worst of the winds from Typhoon Halong last? The answer turned out to be most of the opening day, but it didn’t stop a handful of players from putting up nice scores to set the pace in Japan.

Max Greyserman, Bud Cauley and Brian Campbell found themselves atop the leaderboard at Yokohama Country Club just outside Tokyo after 4-under 67s, one clear of a large chasing pack of Nicolai Højgaard, Adam Scott, Sahith Theegala, Takumi Kanaya, William Mouw, Kevin Roy, Sam Ryder and Rico Hoey.

Despite winds hitting gusts up around 40mph, 33 players shot par or better to be within four of the lead with major winners Collin Morikawa (71), Xander Schauffele (71) and local favorite Hideki Matsuyama (72) still confident of contending.

Now attention turns to the second round where the winds are due to drop significantly but not disappear. Gusts should top out around the 15 to 20mph mark from this point on, bringing the best ball-striking back into calculation.

DraftKings Sportsbook has adjusted the outright odds as follows, with even the favorites still priced above +1000.

• +1200: Bud Cauley (4-under, T1), Max Greyserman (4-under, T1), Alex Noren (2-under, T12)
• +1400: Adam Scott (3-under, T4)
• +1600: Xander Schauffele (E, T25), Nicolai Højgaard (3-under, T4), Kevin Yu (2-under, T12), Rico Hoey (3-under, T4)
• +1800: Michael Thorbjornsen (2-under, T12)
• +2000: Takumi Kanaya (3-under, T4), Kurt Kitayama (1-under, T19)
• +2200: Collin Morikawa (E, T25), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (2-under, T12), William Mouw (3-under, T4)

Of the current top 10, more than half of them actually lost strokes off the tee – suggesting the real area to excel is on approach. Nine of the top 11 players gained shots into the green against the field, and the two who didn’t needed to be great from the tee box or on the greens, respectively, to keep pace.

When we have a bunched leaderboard like this, one must dive into the stats and see who the outliers are. Who played well but has likely improvement to come compared to their baseline, and who overperformed and could be set for a fall back to the norm?

I’m going to highlight a few for you and add a bet for them you can consider. Let’s start with the leaders.

Max Greyserman, who was runner up a year ago at a different course, ranked third in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green on Thursday. But it was his 13th rank in SG: Tee-to-Green – against his 2025 rank of 98th – that might give you pause ahead of the final three rounds. I still think there is value in the place markets. Best bet: Top 10 with ties +100.

Bud Cauley was first in the field from tee-to-green, but that’s not a huge surprise from his usual game. Instead, being ranked third in SG: Around-the-Green compared to 89th on the year makes one wonder if he can keep his scrambling together this week or if it will slip away. I like some non-Americans to potentially win the tournament so maybe you can get decent odds he can lead the way for the American contingent. Best bet: Top USA player +170.

And then there is Brian Campbell. The two-time winner in 2025 is once again knocking on the door for a trophy despite ranking 68th of 78 players in SG: Off-the-Tee, a usual struggle in his game. With his approach game currently well above his "norm," Campbell is one to keep an eye on, but maybe not jump on yet as regression could be imminent. On the other hand, this is a proven winner who leads – and yet is still +4500! Best bet: Top 10 +280, with a small half unit on the juicy outright.

Next to spy on is co-favorite Alex Noren. He’s two off the pace but he’s won twice on the DP World Tour in the last few months and 12 times overall. When you’re hot, you’re hot and the oddsmakers know it. Noren was good in all aspects of the first round, but not his usual penetrating best on the greens. With an uptick in putting tomorrow he becomes the man to beat. Consider Noren bets now. Best bet: Outright +1200.

Another European in Nicolai Højgaard is a roller-coaster ride to follow. He lost over two shots to the field off the tee, but that came from just one particularly loose shot that ended with a lost ball. Despite a double bogey there and another bogey on his final hole, Hojgaard is the wild card. He’s stinging about missing the recent Ryder Cup and is ready to go. He's top four in Around-the-green, Tee-to-Green and Approach in the first round, but the concern is he was 155th on the season Around-the-Green. Stands to reason we won’t see another two hole-out day like he had. I do like him to continue feasting on the par 3s. Only three are here, he currently co-leads at 1-under among them, and was ninth all season in Birdie or Better on Par 3s. Best bet: Par-3 winner (tournament) +1200.

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