Davis Thompson may be leading through 54 holes of the John Deere Classic, but he has most of the Quad Cities still within striking distance heading into the final round.

The defending champ rolled in a birdie putt on the 18th green to break out of a five-way tie for the lead, and he’ll take a slim one-shot advantage into the final round as he looks to go back-to-back at TPC Deere Run. But there’s an eclectic mix just behind him on the leaderboard, ranging from accomplished veterans to recent TOUR winners to those in search of a breakthrough moment.

Thompson’s closing birdie, his third in the last four holes to close out a 4-under 67 amid tricky scoring conditions, ensured the former Georgia standout will enter the final round as both the betting favorite and the outright leader.

Updated odds to win the John Deere Classic (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +200: Davis Thompson (-15)
• +500: Max Homa (-14), Emiliano Grillo (-14)
• +900: Brian Campbell (-14)
• +1100: David Lipsky (-14)
• +1600: Kurt Kitayama (-12)
• +2200: Seamus Power (-12), Austin Eckroat (-12)

The John Deere has seen back-to-back winners before – in fact, Steve Stricker’s run of three in a row from 2009 to 2011 remains the last time a player won the same TOUR event in three consecutive years. But Sunday’s finale in Moline will have a few wrinkles – thunderstorms that led tournament officials to move up third-round tee times will soften the par-71 layout, while the wind will blow from the opposite direction it did during the third round. This tournament also has a penchant for comeback victories – look back just two years to Sepp Straka’s wild rally during the final round – so it’s hardly a place to lean on the chalk, especially with 14 pros (and amateur Jackson Koivun) teeing off within three shots of the lead.

So I’ll be moving past Thompson as the in-play favorite, largely given his updated price, and instead looking at a trio of live options, ranging from close range to a true longshot:

Emiliano Grillo (+500)

There are a lot of players near the top of the board looking for a drought-busting win. Homa’s travails over the last 12-15 months have been well-documented, while Lipsky has missed five cuts in a row. Campbell won earlier this year but has been largely inconsistent since.

Grillo, on the other hand, has been trending in a positive direction: three top-20 finishes in his last four starts, including a T19 finish at the U.S. Open. Oakmont and TPC Deere Run don’t have many similarities, but momentum travels. Grillo has won twice before, including at another cozy, tree-lined course in Colonial two years ago. The Argentine has been consistent throughout the bag, ranking 18th or better in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach and SG: Putting through three rounds. The putter in particular has been reliable, and Grillo has made just two bogeys all week.

Austin Eckroat (+2200)

This might be my favorite of the three, as I think Eckroat is in great shape to make a Sunday surge. Twice a winner on TOUR since last February, he ranks second for the week in Approach play but has only been middle of the pack (38th) on the greens. He struggled to close his second round but went bogey-free Saturday with a monster putting bounce back: from 148th in SG: Putting in the second round to third in the same category.

While he’s facing some pressure to get in position to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs, entering the week 100th in points, he has extra job security from last year’s two wins. It could allow him to take a freer approach toward chasing birdies and firing at flags on a day when the winning score will likely approach 20 under.

Cameron Champ (+4000)

This qualifies as a longshot, given Champ will begin the day T10 with eight of the nine players above him already TOUR winners. But I always have an eye out for Champ in these situations, given his penchant for getting his hands on the trophy during the (infrequent) times he tees off the final round with a sniff of the lead.

Champ has three TOUR wins to his credit, all of which came in his first seven top-10 career finishes. It’s been a similarly mixed bag this year for Champ: three missed cuts, but top-20 finishes in all four times he has played the weekend (which could become five on Sunday).

Champ is a high-variance option, but he has feasted on the front nine this week: 11 under on the outward half and Even on the back. Should the first part of that trend hold, he’ll likely make an early move up the standings and at least give himself a chance to roll in a few putts and truly challenge for the title. At this price heading into an 18-hole shootout, that’s all you can ask for.