Draws and Fades: Expect PGA Championship winner to come from back of pack (again)

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – If you want to find the winner of the 107th PGA Championship, keep scrolling.

Yes, Jhonattan Vegas holds the overnight lead after a 7-under 64 in the opening round. Two-time PGA TOUR winner Cam Davis is two shots back, as is Ryan Gerard. In total, 19 players opened the week with a round of 3-under 68 or better at Quail Hollow Club.

But unlike the Masters, where front-runners tend to reign, the PGA has a recent history that shows players can come back from a slow start and still lift the Wanamaker Trophy. And it feels like that will be the case this week in the Queen City.

Updated odds to win PGA Championship (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +330: Scottie Scheffler
• +1100: Bryson DeChambeau
• +1600: Tyrrell Hatton
• +1800: Jon Rahm
• +2000: Jhonattan Vegas
• +2200: Ludvig Åberg, Collin Morikawa
• +2500: Viktor Hovland, Aaron Rai
• +3000: Rory McIlroy

Dating back to 2017, the first time the PGA Championship was played at Quail Hollow, four of the eight winners have started the second round outside the top 30. That includes eight years ago, when Justin Thomas opened with a 73 here and came back to lift his first major trophy.

The 19 players at 3 under or better present an eclectic mix, but the firepower is lacking: Only Keegan Bradley and Matt Fitzpatrick, both 3 under, have won a major before. Six of the 19 have never won a TOUR event, and another five have exactly one TOUR win to their credit.

None of this is news to oddsmakers, who have put distance between Scheffler (2 under) and the field but also chopped the price on several players who opened at even par or 1 under.

So with a quick turnaround heading into the second round, where should bettors look for in-play options? Let’s take a look:

Draws

Viktor Hovland (+2500)

I love where Hovland is positioned despite a bogey on the difficult 18th that bumped his odds up. The Norwegian has been dialed in at this event each of the last three years, having finished runner-up at Oak Hill in 2023 and T3 last year at Valhalla. His game is tough to read – not quite as tough as his self-assessments and presser comments, but close – but he reminded us of his ceiling earlier this year when he snatched the Valspar Championship away from Justin Thomas over the final few holes.

Hovland was unremarkable tee-to-green, but he shone in a typical weak spot: short game. He was ninth in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, boosting him to 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green despite some pedestrian drives. Hovland hit just nine of 18 greens in regulation but managed to save par scrambling on six of those nine occasions. If he gets it figured out off the tee, he’s going to be a factor on the weekend.

Xander Schauffele (+5000)

I’m not ready to give up the fight with Schauffele, my pre-tournament pick who stumbled out of the gates Thursday. The defending champ was vocal about the impact of mud balls on his performance, particularly a wild hook from the middle of the fairway on No. 16 that led to a double bogey. But a late birdie on No. 8 gave him a glimmer of hope, and at 1 over, he’s still not out of this thing.

Schauffele was one of the longest hitters in the field Thursday but struggled mightily around the greens, sinking his SG: Tee-to-Green stats in the process. He’ll need his short game to show up in order to bounce back, but keep in mind that he has been inside the top 20 at 12 straight majors – I expect him to put up a fight to keep that streak intact. You’re getting a proven winner at more than double his pre-tournament price, which was already elevated because of the spotlight on Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Given the composition of the leaderboard and the players he’ll look to chase down, I fully expect Schauffele shows up to the course Friday believing that he’s still alive to go back-to-back with the Wanamaker.

Fades

Jhonattan Vegas (+2000)

Where, exactly, did this come from? Prior to a T13 finish at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson in his most recent start, Vegas had missed four straight cuts and had endured a stretch of six starts dating back to early March where he didn’t finish better than 60th. He’s outside the top 70 in every major Strokes Gained category, and in 16 major starts has never finished better than T22 in a major (2018 PGA Championship).

Vegas picked a good day to have a good day, and if you cashed a +17000 First Round Leader ticket on the Venezuelan, take a bow. Just don’t expect it to hold up over the next 54 holes on a major-caliber test.

Ludvig Åberg (+2200)

I was on the Swede last week at the Truist Championship, and he put up a disappointing result. He’s still in the mix after a 1-under 7,0 but I’m not buying that the pieces are all in place (yet) on a course he’s seeing for the first time.

Åberg was middle of the pack with his irons, ranking 76th in SG: Approach in the opening round, and stood 47th in SG: Putting. He’s got an advantage off the tee, but I’m not sure the other parts of his game are dialed in enough for him to avoid a big number over the closing 54 holes. He could be an option to fade in a second-round three-ball as he plays with Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed.

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