SAN DIEGO – As huge names Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy stalled out at The Genesis Invitational, it was underdogs Patrick Rodgers and Denny McCarthy who moved towards giant-killer status at Torrey Pines.

In near unbelievable circumstances, Scheffler and McIlroy shot over par in the third round while Rodgers blitzed his way up the leaderboard with a 4-under 68 to move to 8-under and a one-shot lead. That lead was over McCarthy (71) who moved to second spot at 7-under. The final twosome on Sunday will as such contain players chasing their first PGA TOUR win.

Young gun Ludvig Åberg (70) is well poised at 6-under to capture his second TOUR title, riding an early ace on the picturesque par-3 third to set himself up for a charge.

Four players are tied for fourth place at 4-under including Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Davis Thompson. McIlroy, who shot a 2-over 74 on Saturday, is now five shots off the lead at 3-under joined by Scheffler, who was two shots worse with a 76. Justin Thomas, Maverick McNealy and Nico Echavarria also sit five back.

The question now is – can the final group overcome the closing issues they’ve had before, or will someone storm through from behind to take the trophy?

The oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook are giving the edge to Åberg, despite giving up a start on the leaderboard. The outright odds heading to the final round are as follows.

• +300: Ludvig Åberg (-6, third)
• +350: Patrick Rodgers (-8, first)
• +360: Denny McCarthy (-7, second)
• +1200: Scottie Scheffler (-3, T8)
• +1400: Rory McIlroy (-3, T8)
• +1600: Patrick Cantlay (-4, T4)
• +1800: Tony Finau (-4, T4)
• +1800: Tommy Fleetwood (-4, T4)
• +2200: Justin Thomas (-3, T8)
• +2200: Davis Thompson (-4, T4)

Draws

Ludvig Åberg +300

Considering Åberg was my pre-tournament pick to win the tournament, there is no chance I’m bailing out now that he sits just two back and in a great position to dictate the nerves of the duo behind him.

Leading the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Proximity, Par-3 Scoring and Front-9 Scoring while ranking second in Driving Distance and SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in Scrambling. The only potential bugbear will be his putting, which on occasion can let him down. With four three-putts this week he will be hoping that’s the last of those.

A winner at The RSM Classic in 2023, Åberg also has a previous top 10 at Torrey Pines and was in position to contend a few weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open before contracting an illness that saw him lose 8 pounds.

Wildcard draw: Rory McIlroy +1400

After the disaster of Saturday for McIlroy and Scheffler, you’d be forgiven for steering clear. But if anyone has the firepower to storm up a leaderboard and put fear into others it would be one of those two. Given you get a little more juice on McIlroy, I’d lean towards him over the world No. 1 as he’s still leading the field in SG: Off-the-Tee and Driving Distance while sitting third in SG: Tee-to-Green. The Northern Irishman just couldn’t buy a putt on Saturday. If he maintains his tee-to-green game and actually makes putts, it could get some roars pumping around the pines.

Fade

Patrick Rodgers +350

It would be nice to be wrong, but Rodgers showed his nerves late Saturday when he dumped his third shot at the 18th hole into Devlin’s Billabong and made bogey to let a raft of players back into this contest.

An owner of seven TOUR top-threes without a win, Rodgers has had a notoriously tough time closing tournaments. There’s a first time for everything, but Rodgers also got to the lead ranking third in SG: Putting despite being overall 173rd this season. He’s also ranked outside the top 60 in putting over the last two seasons. Expecting him to hold up on the greens with his expected nerves is tough. For the record, McCarthy has three top-threes without a win also … but he’s an excellent putter. That gives him an outside chance.

“It's clearly something I've battled in my career," Rodgers said of the near misses. "It's the thing that whenever my name is mentioned, that's the first thing that everybody says professionally so it's something that I have to deal with. I've struggled with it for a long time, but I feel like I'm viewing my career from a different vantage point now and I'm excited about the opportunity to cross that finish line tomorrow.”

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