Draws & Fades: With scores (and winds) low, Scottie Scheffler continues to shine in Maui

They are halfway home at the first PGA TOUR event of the 2024 season, and with the weather cooperating in Maui, we are once again seeing quite a few birdies being made at The Sentry.

The biggest defense at The Plantation Course is the wind and so far, the wind has been a relative no-show. For the first two rounds, playing conditions have only seen a typical island breeze in the neighborhood of 15 mph and the players have taken advantage of it.

Tyrrell Hatton fired the low round of the day, an 11-under 62, to get to 15 under for the tournament. He played his last 11 holes in 9-under par, despite making a bogey on the 14th hole. Of the 59 players in the field, every single one of them shot under par in Round 2.

Some golf purists are not fans of a birdie-fest but personally, I love seeing these players relaxed, having fun, going low, and enjoying the friendly island vibe. It's a great way to kick things off and ease into a new season. Cheers to more a-LOW-ha at Kapalua in January for hopefully a very long time.

While Hatton put together the round of the day, it was not enough to hold off world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler from finding his way to the top of the leaderboard. A winner in the Bahamas at the Hero World Challenge just one month ago, Scheffler seems to be taking a liking to tropical golf. He opened with a 66 on Thursday and followed it up with a 9-under 64 on Friday to leapfrog Hatton and get to 16 under for the tournament.

Brendon Todd and Sungjae Im are tied for second place with Hatton at 15 under. Chris Kirk and Byeong Hun An sit alongside Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa in fifth place at 14 under. Matt Fitzpatrick, Akshay Bhatia, Sahith Theegala, Brian Harman, Sepp Straka and Jordan Spieth round out the top 10 on the leaderboard, all at 13-under par and three shots off the lead. In total, 13 players – 22% of the field – trail Scheffler by just three shots or fewer with 36 holes left to play.

Updated odds entering Round 3 (via BetMGM)

+175: Scottie Scheffler
+750: Viktor Hovland
+900: Collin Morikawa
+1000: Sungjae Im, Tyrrell Hatton
+2000: Jordan Spieth
+2500: Matt Fitzpatrick, Byeong-Hun An, Brendon Todd

The forecast for Saturday calls for more of the normal, steady island breeze we've witnessed for the first two days, but Sunday is interesting as it appears it may be nearly dead calm with winds expected to be less than 10 mph. The Plantation Course record of 61 could be in jeopardy on Sunday in Maui.

When we are faced with a birdie-fest and bogeys are few and far between, it can be very difficult to make up much ground on the front runners. Your pre-tournament favorite (Scheffler) sits atop the leaderboard and remains at the top of the odds board heading into the weekend at +175. What do we do with him and who do we go against as we look to cash a few tickets in the season's opening test?

Draws

Scottie Scheffler (+175)

We finished up 2023 in this column backing Scheffler for a win at the Hero World Challenge. Why should we change anything now? We shouldn't. He's still the best golfer in the world and continues to play like it. As I noted earlier, when mistakes are a rarity it is hard to catch the leaders, and going into Saturday, Scheffler has a one-shot head start. He's up to his usual ball-striking prowess this week, ranking third in the field on approach but he's also putting really well, currently 13th in the field for SG: Putting. He's only hitting 50% of these ridiculously wide fairways and I don't see how that doesn't improve over the weekend. If the putter just stays steady, the 2023 Player of The Year will be picking up right where he left off.

Collin Morikawa (+900)

With his family history in Hawaii, his heart and soul being poured into Lahaina relief, and his want to atone for last year's collapse at this tournament, there is no doubt Morikawa is extremely focused on winning this week – maybe more so than anyone else. As usual, he's been driving it very well, striking it well, and ranks second in the field for Greens In Regulation but it is the putter that has been giving him some trouble. Morikawa is currently 29th in this field for SG: Putting. If he can cut that number in half, he'll be right there on Sunday, and I believe that he will be. This may come down to Scottie and Collin in the end.

Fade

Viktor Hovland (+750)

It is an interesting look when you dive into the stats on how Hovland has been performing so far this week. A flip-flop of his typical game, really. He is currently third in the field for SG: Putting and 41st for SG: Approach. That is really odd for him. Hovland is also 33rd in the field for Driving Accuracy, hitting just 17 of 30 of these extremely wide fairways. Clearly, something is off. It does speak to the player he is though to still be tied for fifth and only two shots off the lead. However, if his tee-to-green game continues to go sideways, I don't see the putter being able to continue to shoulder the load – certainly not enough to carry Hovland to victory. It is worth noting that in three prior trips to The Sentry, Hovland has finished 31st, 30th, and 18th – and those were against much smaller fields than we have here this year.

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