Don’t drift too far down the leaderboard to find the eventual Wyndham winner
4 Min Read

Written by Brady Kannon
My GolfBet colleague, Ben Everill, tabbed this week's Wyndham Championship the “Last Chance Saloon." So far, the two players having the best luck at the PGA TOUR's most all-or-nothing tavern are Billy Horschel and Lucas Glover.
The Top 70 players in FedExCup points will advance to next week's FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, kicking off Round 1 of the Playoffs. Horschel began the week at 116th in the FedExCup standings. He shot the low round of the day on Friday, an 8-under 62, to get into second place heading into the weekend. He's at 11 under, one shot behind our leader, Russell Henley. Horschel will need to either win the tournament or finish second in order to extend his season and advance into the FedExCup Playoffs. Glover began the week at 112th on the points list and is currently projected to move to 84th with two more rounds left to play. He is at 10 under for the week, two shots back of Henley and tied for third place.
A winner at the RSM Classic this past fall, Adam Svensson is also at 10 under as are Byeong-Hun An and Brendon Todd. From there it is a three-shot gap to four players who are tied at 7-under par, including last week's runner-up at the 3M Open, J.T. Poston. Rookie sensation Ludvig Aberg is one shot closer at 8 under.
Updated odds to win Wyndham Championship (via BetMGM Sportsbook)
+200: Russell Henley
+550: Billy Horschel
+800: Brendon Todd
+850: Byeong-Hun An
+900: Lucas Glover
+1000: Adam Svensson
+2500: J.T. Poston
+3500: Stephan Jaeger
+5500: Sungjae Im
Of course we show up here every week at the halfway point of the tournament and make a case for who we are going to back and who we are going to go against over the weekend. Before we get to specific players in that regard, I can tell you that I don't want any part of anyone that is currently 8-under par or worse. I believe this championship will be decided - and will be a fight between - the six players at 10 under par or better.
With that, let's go ahead and get to the specifics.
DRAWS
Russell Henley (+200)
Henley is obviously playing at a high level through two days, but what I like about what he is doing is that it all fits into his skill set profile. He's a very accurate driver, he's good on approach, he's especially good from inside of 150 yards, and he's a good putter. He's doing all of that very well so far this week.
There really isn't a single area that looks like an outlier that would be a cause for concern. The golf course obviously sets up very well for his game - as evidenced by his three straight top-10 finishes in this event prior to this year. If he just continues playing his game, he ought to be absolutely in the mix once again on Sunday, two years after failing to close out a 54-hole lead.
Brendon Todd (+800)
Todd fits a similar profile to Henley. He's very accurate off the tee, he's good on approach, excellent from inside of 150 yards and is an especially good putter. Both Todd and Henley played golf at University of Georgia. Are they both possibly inspired by the recent Open Championship win by fellow Bulldog, Brian Harman? I imagine it can't hurt. Henley's game through two rounds has been a bit cleaner than Todd's, and even at the short price Henley is probably the better value bet. But Todd's price is not far off from where it should be, in my opinion.
FADE
Billy Horschel (+550)
Like Henley, Horschel too has great history at the Wyndham Championship, finishing top 11 in four of his last six trips to this event including a runner-up in 2020. But he has not had a great 2023 season. In fact, after he won the Memorial last year, he's been on a steady decline, having missed 11 cuts since then. His iron play has dipped to 145th on TOUR in SG: Approach. He ranks outside the Top 100 on TOUR in Hole Proximity from 125-175 yards - which happens to be a very common approach distance range here at Sedgefield Country Club. Through two rounds, Horschel is not playing very well on approach or around the greens. His putter is carrying him right now, ranking second in this field through two rounds - and that is a tough spot to be in going forward. The putting is likely to regress at some point over the weekend, and if the rest of his game continues to be just average, he's not going to win this golf tournament - and probably won't finish second, either, in order to make it into the FedExCup Playoffs. My price would be closer to +800 on Horschel rather than +550. He leads four other players by only a shot, yet his price is well shorter than every one of the other players.