Much can happen over the course of 30 holes.

Especially around the hallowed grounds of Augusta National, there’s no such thing as a safe lead. Larger margins have disappeared in shorter spans – just ask Jordan Spieth. Still, with a marathon day ahead and only Jon Rahm (-9) within seven shots of leader Brooks Koepka (-13), this feels like a two-man race.

Play was suspended because of inclement weather with the leaders facing putts on the seventh green: Koepka’s for par and Rahm’s for birdie, setting up a potentially pivotal swing when play resumes at 8:30 a.m. ET Sunday. A make/miss combo, one way or the other, could set the tone for the lengthy finale – albeit with a better forecast than Saturday.

Koepka missed the worst of the weather Friday but showed no signs of slowing down in the third round, extending his lead amid the raindrops. As a result, he’s less than even money to close out what would be his fifth major title.

Updated odds to win the Masters (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

-110: Brooks Koepka

+160: Jon Rahm

+2800: Viktor Hovland

+3000: Collin Morikawa

+3300: Patrick Cantlay

+4000: Matt Fitzpatrick

+8000: Cameron Young, Jason Day

The steep drop-off in price after the first two names indicates the current state of affairs. Koepka has made just one bogey all week, that coming back on Thursday, and he has ample experience playing from this position (successfully) in majors. Rahm has all the tools to catch him, but his margin for error is dwindling after a pair of front-nine bogeys in the rain Saturday.

In the overwhelming majority of circumstances – probably close to 90 percent or more – it’ll be either Koepka or Rahm slipping into the green jacket on Sunday. Adding Koepka stock at this point could hinge on how you expect the early exchange on the seventh green to go, as Koepka’s in-play price will surely shorten if he heads to the eighth tee still equipped with a four-shot lead. I give him the edge overall, both because of his current position and because of the lack of flaws his game has shown over the last three days. The formula he has employed – take advantage of the par-5s and keep it close to the vest everywhere else – is right out of the Tiger Woods playbook at Augusta National and makes it hard to make up ground against him in chunks.

But a Koepka-Rahm showdown doesn’t mean we are lacking for betting options heading into the final day. Here’s a look at some secondary props that could be worth a look ahead of the highly-anticipated finale:

Winner without Koepka/Rahm: Collin Morikawa (+550)

If you don’t think anyone is catching the top two names, just take them out of the equation. That’s what this special market at BetMGM does, one where Viktor Hovland (+500) is a slight favorite ahead of Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay (+550). But I’m leaning toward the two-time major champ in Morikawa, who displayed some stellar ball-striking in difficult conditions Saturday.

Morikawa is in a large logjam at 5 under, one shot behind amateur Sam Bennett for third place. His bogeys on Nos. 6 and 7 amid the heaviest rains doubled his total bogey tally for the week. With cool temps and gusting winds in the forecast Sunday, ball-striking will remain of utmost importance. That plays to Morikawa’s advantage, despite the fact that he will make no better than par on No. 8 when play resumes.

Morikawa has more holes to play than Cantlay and Matt Fitzpatrick, and he has a better short game than Hovland. His fifth-place showing last year informs that he can handle the final-round conditions at Augusta National. It’s hard to envision him making a charge to catch either of the two leaders, but I expect some of his cohorts at 5 under may flame out in an attempt to do so. Morikawa’s steady output plays well for this secondary market, and I expect him on the podium in bronze position come Sunday.

Winning Score: 15 under or worse (+122)

This FanDuel prop bounced all over the place on Saturday: after Round 2 ended the O/U was set at -17.5, while in the worst of the weather it dipped down to -13.5. Now it’s settled at -15.5, with -150 juice to the over, and I think there’s value on the plus-money side.

Over the last 20 years, only three Masters winners have cracked 16 under: Dustin Johnson’s win in wet conditions in November 2020, Jordan Spieth’s 2015 romp and Phil Mickelson’s 2010 victory. By and large, the winning score eventually comes back to earth.

As noted above, much can happen with so much golf still to play – especially with a forecast that, while sunnier, also keeps the wind as a focal point. Koepka memorably nearly gave up a seven-shot lead at the 2019 PGA Championship before hanging on for the win, and history suggests that he’ll eventually endure a rough patch. He’s also basically sitting at -12.5, facing about a 15-footer for par when play resumes that would admittedly could change the tide on this line should he hole it.

Throw in the notion that there’s a decent chance Koepka, like Scottie Scheffler last year, will have a few strokes to play with over the final couple holes, and I’m not convinced he’ll need to get to 16 under to win.

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