At PGA National, no lead is safe.

So, while four-time PGA TOUR winner Chris Kirk is feeling pretty good with his two-shot clubhouse led with a round to play, he knows this tournament is far from finished.

You can make a genuine case for anyone within six shots of the lead, and a tenuous case for those seven or eight shots back, such is the possible carnage on the Champion Course.

“It’s a golf course I like (but) I wouldn't say it's one that that I feel comfortable on, I don't think anybody feels comfortable on this golf course it’s so difficult and a lot of the shots are so demanding,” Kirk said post round.

But someone will step up to the challenge and the infamous Bear Trap finish from 15-17.

Let’s take a look at the players on top of the board at BetMGM Sportsbook and check the case FOR and the case AGAINST their chance to lift the trophy on Sunday.

CHRIS KIRK, -13, 1st (+100 to win)

Case For: Kirk has won four times before albeit not since 2015. He is leading the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (+9.863) a metric he ranks 44th in on the season. Seven of the last eight winners were inside the top four in this statistic and four of them led the field. Twice this season, at the Sony Open in Hawaii and The American Express, Kirk had chances to win only to settle for third. He was T7 at The Honda Classic a year ago. Has just three bogeys on the week to co-lead the field.

“I'm looking forward to tomorrow,” Kirk said. “The two weeks that I had at Sony and Amex really in contention with a chance to win… I didn't quite pull those off… but it makes me feel prepared and ready and I believe in what I'm doing.”

Case Against: The nerves have stopped him when facing several chances over the last two years, including his two chances in January. He sat T2 through 36 holes at PGA National a year ago but couldn’t make his move on the weekend. Do we take confidence from the two recent thirds, or use caution? He is just two from five in converting 54 holes leads to wins in his TOUR career.

ERIC COLE, -11, 2nd (+450 to win)

Case For: Cole is a local who is known as somewhat of a mini-tour legend in the area who is in the midst of his rookie PGA TOUR season. As such, he goes in with a nothing to lose attitude. Cole has over 50 wins in the minor leagues, which could hold him in good stead. “It's the same but it is different. It's a bigger stage and stuff, but the golf ball doesn't know the difference, and I'm just going to try and keep kind of executing the way I have the first three days, and I think it should take care of itself,” Cole said. He also has pedigree as the son of former TOUR player Bobby Cole and LPGA player Laura Baugh and clearly has some vociferous support amongst the Florida faithful.

Case Against: In his 11 TOUR starts this season Cole has five missed cuts, although just one of those came in his last seven. Cole has never tasted pressure like this before as part of the final group on Sunday in a TOUR event and while he is currently ranked third in Strokes Gained: tee-to-Green this week, his season rank is 166th. He’s also losing strokes to the field around the green at the moment despite leading the field in scrambling.

SHANE LOWRY, -9, T4 (+650 to win)

Case For: Lowry is a major champion, who resides in the area, and who was runner up at the event last year when only a freak late storm likely cost him a legitimate shot at the victory. He ranks fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this week but importantly also ranks a healthy 34th in the metric for the season thus far. With the infamous Bear Trap housing two par-3s over the finish, it’s important to know Lowry co-leads the field in Par-3 Scoring so far this week. He won’t be afraid of the chase.

“This golf course, you don't know what's going to happen. You just need to stick in as long as you can. A lot of holes (can bring) a bit of disaster,” Lowry said. “You just need to be very cautious and aggressive to your targets and just go out there and give it your best, and if that's good enough at the end of the day, you hope to be standing here with the trophy.”

Case Against: Even with disaster lurking Lowry is giving up a healthy start of four shots. It is hard to press for birdies without inviting serious failure so the balance will be critical for the Irishman. He has managed 14 par breakers (all birdies) thus far, with only Chesson Hadley (16), Matt Wallace (15) and Chris Kirk (15) ahead of him. He will need to be near flawless with the putter, not always his strength.

JUSTIN SUH, -10, 3rd (+700 to win)

Case For: Suh was a standout amateur while at USC, even higher touted than the likes of Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland at times. His skill set is sublime and many have said it’s just a matter of time before he wins and wins a lot. Currently second this week in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Suh is also second in SG: Off-the-Tee.

“It's a great opportunity. This is a historical event. I think we're all looking forward to chasing that win,” Suh said. “Overall, we just have to stay consistent, like what me and my caddie are doing. I think just trust the process, hit good shots, execute, and hopefully make more putts.”

Case Against: While the others from his college class have become multiple time TOUR winners at a young age, Suh is yet to show he has the same potential. The overnight leader struggled on the greens incredibly on Saturday, making just 31’1” worth of putts with his longest one from 4’3” late in the round. He missed from closer on 18 for birdie that would have seen him just two back instead of three. Only a sensational eagle hole out from 153 yards on the 12th kept him in contention on a day he ranked 78th of 80 on the greens losing a whopping -3.735 strokes to the average. While he’s doing great in SG: Tee-to-Green thus far, his season rank is 151st. Will his ball-striking stay solid with the pressure at another level?

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