Odds Outlook: Expect top 2026 performers Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick to contend at BMW Championship

Scottie Scheffler kicked off the FedExCup Playoffs with a runaway eight-shot victory at TPC Southwind, securing the FedEx St. Jude Championship and extending his lead in the postseason. This week, the No. 1 player in the FedExCup standings is the overwhelming favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook to lift the trophy at the BMW Championship in St. Louis, the second of three FedExCup Playoffs events.

After steamrolling the field in Memphis, it is no surprise that world No. 1 and the 2025 BMW Championship winner, albeit at another course, Scottie Scheffler (+290), checks in below 3-to-1 to win this week at Bellerive Country Club. His eight-shot victory highlighted what happens to an elite field when the best player in the world catches fire with his putter. The Texan led the field in both Strokes-Gained: Putting and Putting Average. Not bad for the man who ranked second in SG: Approach the Green and third in SG: Tee to Green.

The talk of when he will win next has shifted to, “Can he win all three legs of the FedExCup Playoffs?” With his win, he became the third-youngest player, behind Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods, to win for the 21st time on TOUR. The 30-year-old earned his 15th TOUR victory since the start of the 2024 season, the most on TOUR by nine, and his second victory in his 18th start of 2026. This is his fifth consecutive season with two or more victories. Not bad.

Rory McIlroy (+1600) alluded to the FedExCup Playoffs as a 12-round event. Fresh off a three-week hiatus, the Northern Irishman did not break 70 in any of the four rounds in his return to competitive golf. If he is going to make a run at the title in two weeks at the TOUR Championship, he will need to kick it into gear at the par 70 (7,448 yards) west of downtown. Ranked No. 13 entering the BMW Championship and already qualified for the finale, he will use these four more tournament reps to sharpen his game. His driver, usually the leading actor, only produced 23 of 56 fairways (T65 of 69), while his putter was as cold as the bottled water in the player hospitality tent. He ranked 61st out of 69 players in SG: Putting.

Playing with one of his best friends last Sunday, Sam Burns (+1800) had a front-row seat to witness Scheffler’s domination. Beginning the day in the final group only two shots back, the Louisiana native found himself six adrift after just six holes, and the writing was on the wall. Eventually sharing third in Memphis, Burns, who had not played since retaining the outright 54-hole lead at Royal Birkdale his last time out, was not bothered by the heat and humidity. His excellent summer run yielded paydays of solo second (U.S. Open), T12 (Travelers), solo third (The Open) and T3 (FedEx St. Jude Championship) in his last four starts and he should factor again this week.

The 2025 FedExCup champion, Tommy Fleetwood (+2000), added to his collection of top-10 paydays at TPC Southwind with a T7 payday last week. The Englishman ranks No. 8 in the standings and will have a chance to become the first player ever to win back-to-back FedExCup titles in two weeks outside Atlanta. This week, he and 49 others return to Bellerive Country Club for the first time since the 2018 PGA Championship. Bellerive also hosted the 2008 BMW Championship, won by Camilo Villegas (not in the field).

The course Fleetwood and friends played for the PGA Championship will differ in 2026. All 18 greens were fully rebuilt in 2019-2020, wiping out any notes or knowledge. The second week in a row playing on Zoysia fairways should make everyone comfortable, but Bermudagrass putting surfaces are replaced by slick T-1 Bentgrass, adding another challenge. The Englishman extended his streak to seven consecutive events earning T14 or better.

Xander Schauffele (+2000) backed up his solo second at the Rocket Classic with another top-10 result, T7 in Memphis. The group of McIlroy, Burns, Fleetwood and Schauffele have combined for exactly ONE victory in 2026 (Masters – McIlroy). The Californian picked off his seventh top-10 payday in 18 starts and is heating up at the money time of the season. Ranked No. 11 in the FedExCup standings, he will return to the TOUR Championship for the 10th time in 11 seasons.

Adding Ludvig Åberg (+2000) to the list of challengers adds another name to the list of elites who have not won in 2026. The Swedish ball-striking exhibitionist ranked No. 10 in the FedExCup standings was last spotted hoisting the trophy in February 2025 at Torrey Pines. Taking three weeks off after earning T9 at The Open, Aberg flashed minimal rust and cashed T7 in Memphis. He led the field in SG: Off the Tee, but a 74 in the third round halted his charge up the leaderboard. He restored order and confidence with a final-round 67, an encouraging sign leading into this week. With “new” greens and course history out the window at Bellerive, he shines even brighter.

The pair of players ranked Nos. 2 and 3 respectively in the FedExCup rankings entering the week, Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200) and Cameron Young (+2200), are the other multiple winners in 2026 among the top choices. Nobody has won more than the Englishman’s three titles (Valspar, RBC Heritage and Zurich Classic), although Chris Gotterup (+2700), also has three trophies on the mantle. After a disappointing MC at The Open, Fitzpatrick was comfortably inside the top 10 after 70 holes in Memphis before a bogey-double bogey finish knocked him to T12. Only Scheffler ranks better in SG: Approach, Tee to Green and Total. Young, the winner at THE PLAYERS Championship and Cadillac Championship, will need to clean up 10 bogeys and three doubles from last week (T39). Another week of water in play on 10-plus holes will be added to the drama. The runner-up at The Open Championship is in search of his first top-10 paycheck since the Rocket Classic at the beginning of the month.

Here's a look at the odds for other notable players, with odds via FanDuel:

• +2700: Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland
• +3000: Si Woo Kim, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark
• +4000: Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Jake Knapp
• +4500: Russell Henley, Kurt Kitayama, Maverick McNealy, Tom Kim, Robert MacIntyre
• +5000: Min Woo Lee
• +5500: Michael Brennan, Michael Thorbjornsen
• +6000: Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Ryan Gerard, Alex Noren, J.J. Spaun
• +6500: Sungjae Im
• +7000: Justin Rose, Jacob Bridgeman, Ben Griffin
• +8000: Kristoffer Reitan, Nicolai Hojgaard, Gary Woodland

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