TPC San Antonio will host this week’s Valero Texas Open, as it has for every edition since 2010. That means there’s plenty of course data and information to pore over in an attempt to best handicap this week’s field.

The difficulty of the course is fairly weather-dependent, or wind-dependent to be more accurate. We’ve seen winning scores anywhere from 8-under par to 20-under par depending on how much Mother Nature has graced the TOUR with her presence. It’s still early in the week, but there are some forecasted storms during competition days, which could soften the course and provide ample scoring opportunities.

From a statistical standpoint, there has been a strong correlation to success from players who excel on the putting surfaces. Putting from 4-8 feet is one of the most correlated stats, and there are only six courses on the schedule where that stat is more correlated to the leaderboard. We’ll keep that in mind as we start to identify specific players in this field.

This is a strong field, with seven different golfers at +2000 or shorter, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The field is headlined by Tommy Fleetwood, who is fresh off his T8 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, meaning that he has earned three top-eight finishes in his four PGA TOUR starts this year. He’s only played this event twice, but it was each of the last two years – earning a T7 in 2024 and a T62 in 2025.

Notably, Collin Morikawa was set to return after a back injury forced him to withdraw just one hole into THE PLAYERS Championship. But Morikawa withdrew from the Valero field on Tuesday, increasing the uncertainty about the state of his game with the Masters on deck.

There’s something exciting about the upside that Robert MacIntyre possesses. He’s always a solid putter – in fact, he’s gained strokes putting in eight straight events. These are not small gains, either; he’s picked up a total of 27.24 strokes putting in those 32 events. That’s a built-in floor that he sometimes combines with high-end tee-to-green play. He’s gained at least seven strokes from tee to green in three of his last nine events. His most recent start was a solo fourth at THE PLAYERS, and he’ll look to build on that performance this week in Texas. He’s currently +1800 to win the Valero Texas Open.

It wouldn’t be a Valero preview without the appearance of Jordan Spieth. He’s the ultimate “Course Horse,” gaining 1.99 strokes per round at TPC San Antonio, which is the best mark in the field over the last decade. He’s only missed the cut once at this event, and he has four other top-12 finishes to go along with his win in 2021.

His putter looks vintage, as he’s gained over 13 strokes putting in his last 20 rounds. Even more impressive, his approach play is trending. He’s gaining a stroke per round over his last 12 rounds, which is becoming an excellent addition to his flatstick. The timing of this event couldn’t be more perfect – his game is rounding into shape right before a run at the Masters, on a golf course where he’s been stellar. I find him to be a viable top-10 option, which is +200 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

If you’re a believer in the Golf Gods, you believe that they owe Denny McCarthy a victory at this event. Two years ago, McCarthy gained 21.15 strokes to the field and didn’t win. It was a historic number for a runner-up finisher, as he fell to Akshay Bhatia in a playoff. McCarthy is still looking for that first PGA TOUR win, and he’ll enter this week with more than 8.5 strokes gained on approach in his last 10 rounds. His prolific putting prowess is never lost, which makes him a dangerous contender for this week. I prefer him in the top-5 market at +830, but I think he could be useful in a variety of markets and formats.

This week will be a test of accuracy and putting more than most other weeks on the PGA TOUR schedule. That’s music to the ears of Andrew Putnam, who is, by far, the most accurate driver in this field. He’s hitting north of 74% of his fairways over the last 36 rounds, and he combines that with an elite short game. He’s made four straight cuts, but this is probably one of the better course fits for him, so there is an expectation of an improved finish. It’s reasonable to consider Putnam in the top-20 market at +380.

If you’re not sold on Robert MacIntyre, you could look to his Ryder Cup teammate for a little insurance. Sepp Straka hits a piercing shot off the tee that allows him to hit plenty of fairways and then lean on the rest of his game. He’s gained at least two strokes on approach in five of his last six starts and is probably the second-most well-rounded player in this field behind Tommy Fleetwood. Like MacIntyre, Straka has shown the ability to contend at and win big-time events. He’s a reasonable second addition to the outright card at +2900 and also as the Top European at +840.

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