The FedExCup Fall wraps up this week in SEC Country with The RSM Classic, where Sea Island Golf Club hosts the final chance for players to secure full status for the 2026 PGA TOUR season. For those hovering outside the top 100, the urgency is real. They have four rounds left to decide what next year will look like.

Last week in Bermuda, Adam Schenk had a career-defining moment. In his 243rd start, he battled through brutal winds and a chaotic Sunday at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship to earn his first PGA TOUR victory. Sitting outside of the top 100, Schenk needed a significant result to secure his status.

Now the attention shifts to St. Simons Island, where plenty of golfers find themselves in the same situation, looking to replicate Schenk’s week.

Sea Island resident and former Georgia Bulldog, Harris English, is this week’s betting favorite at +1900 at FanDuel Sportsbook. He’s followed by fellow Bulldog and St. Simons resident Brian Harman at +2200.

Naturally, there’s a temptation to circle golfers with SEC ties or those who call St. Simons Island home. It’s an angle bettors lean on heavily, but history suggests caution is warranted. Only three SEC players have won The RSM Classic, with the most recent being Austin Cook in 2017. And no resident has won here since 2015, when former Georgia Bulldog Kevin Kisner lifted the trophy.

Storylines are everywhere this week as the FedExCup Fall reaches its finish line, and Sea Island is a fitting place to sort them out. The setup offers scoring chances, but it demands accuracy.

Players will split the opening two rounds between the Seaside and Plantation courses, with each golfer playing both, before the cut is made on Friday. Once the field is trimmed, the weekend shifts exclusively to the Seaside Course, where the tournament will be decided.

With only one competitive round on the Plantation Course, course-specific data there won’t carry as much weight in any model this week. Still, it’s worth noting that the 7,060-yard par 72 is the more scoreable of the two. It features 32 acres of fairways with landing zones averaging 43 yards in width, along with 81 bunkers and water in play on 10 holes.

The Seaside Course, a par 70 measuring 7,005 yards, has slightly less fairway acreage, but the fairway width is similar. The greens are larger, and water is in play on 13 holes. It’s the tougher test of the two, and with its proximity to the water, it’s more susceptible to the wind and weather.

As for the forecast, conditions look manageable overall. Winds are currently projected around 6-10 mph most of the week, with gusts hovering between 5-15 mph. Saturday stands out as the potential wrinkle, with gusts rising to the 16-21 mph range and the only day with rain in the forecast.

With the wind down and fairways as generous as they are, scoring should be optimal. Even so, players will still need to find the short grass. The fairway hit percentage here hovers around 70%, which is well above the TOUR average; however, the penalty for missing is significantly higher.

Given the larger-than-average greens, putting takes on an even bigger role. Larger greens mean longer putts, and three-putt avoidance becomes a valuable metric.

So when building models this week, the blueprint is straightforward: Target golfers who consistently hit fairways, a high number of greens in regulation and putt with confidence on Bermuda – especially from distance.

Key course metrics:

• Strokes Gained: Total
• Driving Accuracy
• Proximity: 125-150 yards
• Proximity: 150-175 yards
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• SG: Putting (Bermuda)
• SG: Putting inside 10 feet
• Approach Putting (or Three-Putt Avoidance)

Chris Kirk to win (+3500)

Chris Kirk might be the most polarizing bet on the board this week. He’s more than just a former University of Georgia standout with local ties, and he’s more than the guy who won this event back in 2013. At +3500, the value on him is tremendous.

The concern for much of last season was the putter. Kirk went through a brutal stretch, losing strokes on the greens in 10 straight starts before finally gaining +4.0 at THE PLAYERS Championship. The true turnaround didn’t arrive until the U.S. Open, where things finally clicked. Since then, he’s gained strokes putting in every event he’s played. During this display of putting, he’s finished runner-up at the Rocket Classic and has notched five top-20 finishes in seven starts.

From a course-fit standpoint, the profile lines up nicely. Kirk is accurate enough off the tee and hits a ton of greens in regulation. Even his irons have been on point over the last 36 rounds. From 125-150 yards, the most common proximity bucket, he ranks eighth in the field.

Then there’s his excellence on Bermuda grass. Outside of his win here in 2013, he’s won the Sanderson Farms Championship (2011), Charles Schwab Challenge (2015), Cognizant Classic (2023), and The Sentry (2024), all on Bermuda.

The counter-argument is fair: He’s missed the cut in three of his last four starts at this event, with a T18 in 2020 being his lone bright spot during that stretch. He also hasn’t teed it up competitively since finishing T9 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in early August.

But even with the extended layoff, I have confidence in Kirk. If the excellent ball-striking continues and the putter stays hot, his comfort level on Bermuda makes him a legitimate contender this week. At his number, he’s one of the more compelling bets on the board.

Michael Thorbjornsen to finish top 10 (+320)

There are plenty of parallels between the games of Michael Thorbjornsen and the 2023 champion, Ludvig Åberg. The most obvious is their dominance off the tee. Both are long, both are accurate, and both gain a real advantage on courses that reward accuracy off the tee.

Could Thorbjornsen follow Åberg’s blueprint and earn his first PGA TOUR victory at the same tournament? It’s certainly within reach. But with the number currently sitting at +2200 to win, there’s more value in backing him for a top-10 finish at +320.

Thorbjornsen’s talent is undeniable. The concern, at times, is composure. He still has stretches where his focus slips and his rounds stall, yet he still manages to find himself in contention.

At the Baycurrent Classic in Japan, where the course was a perfect fit, a slow start nearly buried him. He opened with three bogeys in his first seven holes. Yet, he was able to flip the switch and shoot 66 and 64 over the weekend to finish third.

It was a similar story at the Rocket Classic – three bogeys in a five-hole stretch derailed a chance at the trophy. He missed the playoff by a single stroke.

Those lapses are what hold me back from taking him outright at a short price. But from a statistical standpoint, he checks every box this week. He’s elite off the tee and ranks second in the field in greens in regulation, which makes him a real threat to hang around the top of the leaderboard.

After finishing T8 here last season, he returns with confidence and has a game ideally suited for Sea Island. A top-10 ticket feels like the right call.

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