Preview our Golfbet Insider's 'Perfect 30' lineup for FedExCup Playoffs
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ESPN BET feed on PGA TOUR LIVE returns for FedEx St. Jude Championship
Written by Rob Bolton
For the second straight year, I’m putting my picks for the FedExCup Playoffs into play as we welcome back "Perfect 30 presented by LocaliQ."
My annual Power Rankings for the Playoffs represents the 30 golfers projected not only to advance to the TOUR Championship, but the ranking itself represents a prediction of the outcome. So, what you read below is my entry for the game, which is free to play.
While bragging rights for beating me, no doubt, are enough for you to celebrate, you’re also playing for the prizes for which I’m ineligible. And that’s a darn shame because the grand prize is $1,000,000. Suddenly, mere bragging rights seem unimportant, don’t they? (All prizing is detailed on the Rules page.)
The order of the contenders for the 19th FedExCup below reflects familiar forces, including recent form and course history, but it also loops in the mathematical possibilities of merely qualifying for the FedExCup Playoffs finale after having navigated the first two legs. Those trends, my approach for how to build your entry with an edge, and much more are detailed below.
Perfect 30 presented by LocaliQ measures your performance based on a litany of predictions, and you are encouraged to understand the entirety of the scoring (found under “How to Play”) before finalizing your entry. When you’re working on it, my advice is to ignore your thirst for the beefiest of the bonus points attached to golfers unlikely to advance to the TOUR Championship in favor of decisions that rely on what was learned since the field for the Playoffs was reduced to 70 in 2023. Building from the ground up retains the possibilities to connect for big bonuses attached to golfers who reach East Lake Golf Club, so the objective is to give yourself as many calculated chances to get lucky with the golfers who are, mostly, likely to deliver. While there is a leaderboard to monitor your progress relative to all throughout the Playoffs, what matters most is where you rank at its conclusion.
The cohort of the golfers above is influenced by known and largely predictable trajectories to qualify for the TOUR Championship. Since 2023, all of the opening 19 in the FedExCup have advanced to the finale in both editions. Also, exactly four golfers from outside the opening top 30 advanced to the TOUR Championship in both 2023 and 2024. So, my entry is a mix of all of the top 19, four golfers from outside the top 30, and seven others ranked 20-30.
Further note that none of my reaches begin outside the top 50. In the last two editions, only Viktor Hovland (57th) last year scaled from that range with a T2 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. In fact, he was my pick in last year’s preview/primer to crash the party at East Lake because TPC Southwind has small greens that are not tricky, so ball-strikers who are average putters at best are rewarded. Boom goes the dynamite.
Differences in FedExCup points from position to position are also a factor. Among the top 70 in points when the Playoffs began last year, there were 18 separations of fewer than five points, 16 of which were outside the top 30. This year, there are only 12 gaps smaller than five points, of which only eight are outside the top 30 (and all of those are outside the top 35). Although FedExCup points are quadrupled in the first two legs, there are no cuts in the Playoffs, so climbing even one rung is a heavier lift in the top layers of the standings and in smaller fields.
To specify one example near the bubble, Brian Harman opens at 20th, so he’s just outside the "guaranteed” range based on the two-year trend to advance to East Lake, but his margin of 103.69 FedExCup points over Hideki Matsuyama at 21st is the sixth-largest gap in all of the top 70. So the little lefty is all but a shoo-in to survive. Coincidentally, Harman opened at 20th last year and finished 31st, but his opening lead over Chris Kirk at 28th was just over 100 points, so Harman was much more vulnerable. This year, Harman’s lead over Sam Stevens (No. 28) is about 231 points. This calculus is baked into my entry.
If there’s a through line for all three host sites of the FedExCup Playoffs, it’s change.
As explained in my Power Rankings for the FedEx St. Jude, all greens and a few tees at TPC Southwind were rebuilt since last year’s edition. The challenge as it faces that field of 69 is real, but don’t permit it to knock you off balance as it concerns completing your entry for Perfect 30 presented by LocaliQ, for which the aforementioned factors reign.
The BMW Championship is returning to Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. It previously hosted the tournament in 2021. Of that edition’s participants, 29 qualified for this year’s Playoffs, including Rory McIlroy (second in the FedExCup), who is the only golfer not to commit to the FedEx St. Jude. Like TPC Southwind, Caves Valley also underwent a large rebuild that yielded new tees, new greens, new locations of many greens and a reduction of overall par from 72 to 70. My Power Rankings, which will dive into all of it, will publish on Monday. Merely qualifying for the BMW Championship is a coup for the 50 golfers who do so because it rewards them with starts in all Signature Events in 2026.
But of course, the ultimate goal is the TOUR Championship. In addition to the Signature Events, qualifiers receive exemptions into the next year’s Masters, U.S. Open and The Open Championship. PGA TOUR membership exemptions through 2027 are also awarded where applicable. And that’s even before the first ball is struck at East Lake. The historic track debuted a restoration last year, but additional enhancements have been completed since, albeit not to the extent of the first two hosts of the Playoffs.
Last and certainly not least, the bonus structure for the FedExCup Playoffs was modified in response to the elimination of Starting Strokes while rewarding position upon arrival at East Lake. In addition to the massive cash prize, the 19th FedExCup champion will be fully exempt on the PGA TOUR via the official victory through 2030.
ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE
PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton previews and recaps every tournament. Refer to the timing of his contributions below. He’s also active as @RobBoltonGolf on X where you can connect with him.
- MONDAY: Power Rankings
- TUESDAY*: "Perfect 30" primer; Fantasy Insider
- SUNDAY: Points and Payouts; Qualifiers
*Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore, which also publishes on Tuesday.