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Bolton: Plan carefully for final segment of season starting at RBC Canadian Open

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All-time greatest shots from RBC Canadian Open

All-time greatest shots from RBC Canadian Open

    Written by Rob Bolton

    The RBC Canadian Open launches us into Segment 3 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore. While it presents as a soft open with all golfers resetting to three starts for all gamers, it’s more like the calm before the storm.

    If there’s a swing thought as we tiptoe into the final phase of the fantasy season, it’s to proceed with caution.

    The last Signature Event (Travelers Championship) and the last two majors fall into line among the 12 tournaments contributing to the game in Segment 3. Each will demand real-time strategy, but they also take a back seat to the final three stops that comprise the FedExCup Playoffs. As a result, you’re advised to sketch out a plan that begins at the end.

    For the third consecutive season, the top 70 in the FedExCup at the conclusion of the Wyndham Championship will set the field for the FedExCup Playoffs. The top 50 after the FedEx St. Jude Championship will advance to the BMW Championship, after which the top 30 will vie for the 19th FedExCup title at the TOUR Championship.

    Because FedExCup points earned in the first two FedExCup Playoffs events are quadrupled, so are the FedExCup bonus points awarded to your starters in the final round of both tournaments. Also, and as explained under “End of Tournament Bonus” of How to Play on the Help page, even though FedExCup points are not up for grabs for the golfers competing at the TOUR Championship, the fantasy game will reward FedExCup bonus points to your starters in the final round that are identical to the distribution of the first two legs.

    All of that will be familiar to returning gamers, so it’s important to confirm those details now. What’s new this year will impact future considerations, and it could free up decisions in the interim.

    In an announcement last week, FedExCup Starting Strokes have been eliminated from the TOUR Championship. The tournament will be a straightforward stroke-play competition across 72 holes, just like all other 11 tournaments that precede it in Segment 3.

    Because all 30 in the field at East Lake Golf Club will have an equal shot at the 200 FedExCup bonus points for winning the TOUR Championship, our list of targets for whom we want to have one start remaining for that opportunity is longer than in previous years. So, when maintaining a preferred lineup for it across Segment 3, extend your options free of those negatively impacted for ranking closer to 30 than one in the FedExCup. Just remain fluid over time as they appear at the Travelers and the majors. As always, I will tackle every tournament in this space for that analysis.

    Now, you’ve probably noticed that I omitted references to the role of the captain. That’s by design so that you keep the big picture front and center as you develop your plan. While a gamer could connect with a captain at a low ownership percentage in the FedExCup Playoffs and slingshot around the competition, there is security in saving all three of your starts specifically for Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Then it’d boil down to which guy wears the badge and when. This very thing could decide league championships among current contenders.

    The strategy to holster differs from our lesson in Segment 2 because the FedExCup bonus points for your captain if he’s the winner of a FedExCup Playoffs event is 400. And while I thrived in riding Scheffler to his mammoth performance at THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson that included 100 FedExCup bonus points, it’s still a fraction of the potential in the FedExCup Playoffs. That’s the motivation to remain patient to race to the finish line at full strength when it’s within view.

    Of course, for gamers who play every week, this means that I am advising not to burn McIlroy at TPC Toronto this week. No matter your position overall or in your little league, it makes no sense. The sequence of events that would need to occur to pay it off is as realistic as you think it is for both McIlroy and Scheffler to suddenly slump.

    Before you review the usual sections below for the RBC Canadian, please monitor my Qualifiers page for a midweek update that will include the 47 who successfully navigated 10 sites of Final Qualifying for the U.S. Open on Monday and Tuesday this week.

    Captain

    Taylor Pendrith … The No. 3 in my Power Rankings is teeing it up in his national championship for the fifth time, so the additional challenge of fulfilling expectations in his homeland is nothing new. In fact, it’s a function of my interest. He’s also a phenomenal fit for the test from tee to green, but I’ve been so impressed with how comfortable he’s been since breaking through 13 months ago at THE CJ CUP Bryon Nelson. His cadence of leaderboard appearances proves that he’s comfortable in the climb.

    Other considerations

    • Rory McIlroy … This is obvious despite my warning above. The trade-off for what he needs to achieve at TPC Toronto must outperform the potential of what you’re sacrificing in the FedExCup Playoffs. Trust me – because I was in this position when I needed and didn’t have one more start for Viktor Hovland in 2023 when he went on to win FedExCup – you’re not going to want to have to guess when to sit McIlroy in the FedExCup Playoffs, much less which tournament(s) for which he’d be your captain.

    Rory McIlroy’s best shots from RBC Canadian Open

    Rory McIlroy’s best shots from RBC Canadian Open


    • Shane Lowry ... Like Pendrith, the Irishman is paper perfect, but he’s, well, not Canadian, like Pendrith. I’m also respecting Lowry’s value in the long term, as I envision wanting to use him more than three times. That’s not my expectation for Pendrith.

    Rounding out the roster

    Omitting McIlroy isn’t as easy as it seems. There’s a domino effect. It not only forced a decision between Pendrith and Lowry as captain, but it also shortened my lineup. This isn’t to say that I’m unhappy with this sixsome, but we still can’t overlook the value of needing four to make the cut. Eliminating McIlroy reduces that overall confidence.

    That said, if I were a front-runner, I might play it even more conservatively. I’d consider taking my chance to strengthen future possibilities. But I’m chasing Mike Glasscott, so I’m going in with the strongest McIlroy-less roster that I can build.

    My starters

    • Sam Burns
    • Corey Conners
    • Harry Hall
    • Taylor Pendrith (C)

    My bench

    • Ludvig Åberg (1)
    • Shane Lowry (2)

    Careful

    For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out those who demand a pause and why.

    • Adam Hadwin ... At 105th in the Official World Golf Ranking, he’s fifth among Canadians – all of the top four are in my Power Rankings – but he’s 120th in the FedExCup despite eligibility for all Signature Events thanks to a fruitful 2024. Perhaps this tournament can conjure something special, but he’s gone nine starts in individual competition without a top 35.
    • Wyndham Clark ... This is just a reminder that he’s struggled relative to the expectations for most of 2025. He’s connected for only four top 25s in 14 starts, none of which in his last six.
    • Tom Kim ... I hit it (and him) pretty hard a couple of months ago when I opined that his participation in the TGL cannot be ruled out as a distraction. With his 23rd birthday later this month, no doubt he’s living his best life, but it’s not translating into success. Zero top-35 finishes in his last 10 starts.
    • David Ford, Luke Clanton and Gordon Sargent ... This marks the PGA TOUR membership debut for all three via PGA TOUR University (Ford) and PGA TOUR University Accelerated (Clanton, Sargent). TPC Toronto is a beast on which to break their seal, so allow each to experience it alone. You’ll have plenty of chances in fantasy and DFS as they’re going to appear a lot all summer and on courses more conducive for scoring.

    Notable W/Ds

    • Brian Campbell ... Wasted very little time after the commitment deadline to exit. He had just withdrawn during his second round of the Memorial with an injured shoulder, and he’s poised for his fourth appearance at the U.S. Open, so the rest checks out.
    • Michael Kim ... First break in five weeks. Sits 24th in the FedExCup and he’s headed to the U.S. Open for the third time.
    • Michael Thorbjornsen ... Because he didn’t qualify for the U.S. Open, this promises three weeks of inaction since calling it quits during his opening round of the Charles Schwab Challenge with a sore wrist. Injuries have tampered with his potential impact since he turned pro a year ago, so they’re part of a greater package that should provide some punch for a while. At 101st in the FedExCup, he can be patient in his recovery.
    • K.H. Lee ... This would have marked his first live action since withdrawing during his second round of the Texas Children’s Houston Open with an injured back. He’s 170th in the FedExCup and not yet exempt for 2026, but now that he’s been sidelined for two months, he’d be eligible for a Minor Medical Extension if he needs it. The 33-year-old’s fantasy value already had been limited to long-term formats, but he should be a free agent across the board.
    • Ben Martin ... Given that TPC Toronto is unfamiliar and that he’s down to two starts on his Major Medical Extension to clear 154.217 FedExCup points to retain status, it’s understandable that he opted out. He also just logged a pair of uneventful weeks on the Korn Ferry Tour, so his game isn’t sharp, either.

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