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Mar 17, 2025

Odds Outlook: Valspar Championship

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All-time shots from the Valspar Championship

All-time shots from the Valspar Championship

    Written by Mike Glasscott

    The fourth and final event of the Florida Swing heads to the west coast of the Sunshine State for the Valspar Championship. The Copperhead Course layout features a field of 156 players which includes three of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings, No. 3 Xander Schauffele, No. 9 Justin Thomas and No. 10 Tommy Fleetwood.

    Making his eighth appearance, Justin Thomas (+1400) owns five paydays of T18 or better at Innisbrook Resort, including sharing third in 2022. The 15-time PGA TOUR winner collected T33 last week at THE PLAYERS Championship and matched the course record, 62, in Round 2. If he can keep his putter hot (11th Strokes Gained: Putting at TPC Sawgrass) on TifEagle Bermuda for the third straight week, he will factor on the weekend.

    Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) makes his fifth start of the year and will attempt to extend his streak to five paydays of T22 or better, including T14 last week at THE PLAYERS. The par-71 extends 12 additional yards to 7,352 yards, and he has enjoyed his previous eight loops on the property north of Tampa. Picking up a check for T16 in 2022, he returned with T3 in 2023 and has never produced a round above 71. Yet to win on the PGA TOUR, the owner of eight victories worldwide, the Englishman has yet to crack the code on TOUR, but he excels on demanding layouts. The Copperhead Course, when the wind blows, ranks in the top 10 annually.

    After picking up a rib injury in Maui, Xander Schauffele (+1400) missed two months convalescing. Returning to Bay Hill two weeks ago, he chose one of the most challenging courses on TOUR to knock off the tournament rust. Closing with a round of 69 outside Orlando, hopes were high at TPC Sawgrass, but rounds of 77-81 on the weekend, albeit in tough conditions, saw him finish last. The owner of the longest streak on TOUR of making the weekend, currently at 58 straight events, arrives at a track where he shared fifth place in 2024 and posted three rounds in the 60s to share 12th in 2022.

    The only player in the field with multiple victories at the Valspar Championship, Sam Burns (+2200), the winner in back-to-back years of 2021-22, has earned 40 percent of his TOUR victories on the Copperhead layout. The owner of the tournament scoring record on 17-under-par could not join Steve Stricker in winning three consecutive events in 2023 (sixth). After opening the season with T8 at The Sentry, his only top-10 result from seven starts, the man from Louisiana will attempt to bounce back from missing the cut for the first time in 2025 at TPC Sawgrass.


    Sam Burns holes out for birdie at THE PLAYERS

    Sam Burns holes out for birdie at THE PLAYERS


    Irishman Shane Lowry (+2500) was green with envy on St. Patrick’s Day Monday morning as he watched his partner in the Ryder Cup and Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Rory McIlroy (not entered), win THE PLAYERS Championship in a three-hole playoff for the biggest payday of the season. The inspiration for Lowry, who finished second to his pal at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, should carry into the four rounds this week. Golf in Florida, his adopted home across the pond, has produced T11 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, solo seventh at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and T20 at THE PLAYERS, which included a closing round of 67.

    Sepp Straka (+2500) is the only player in the top choices this week to have won in 2025. Cruising home to win The American Express in January, the Austrian has been excellent since. In the six events after his victory, he has churned out T15 or better in five, including T14 at TPC Sawgrass. In the form of his life, he ranks second in GIR and is in the top 10 of SG: Approach the Green and 11th in SG: Tee to Green. The first time he played here in 2019, he posted 66, his best loop in six tries.

    Corey Conners (+2500) picked up his third top-10 payday of 2025 and second in two weeks, with four rounds in the red at TPC Sawgrass (T6). The Canadian ranked T3 in SG: Off the Tee in Ponte Vedra Beach, can overpower a demanding, hilly, tee-to-green layout. Returning to Palm Harbor for the first time since 2021, he seeks his third win on TOUR in his third appearance at the event.

    Will Zalatoris (+2500) has produced T30 or better in five of six starts in 2025, with T12 at The American Express providing the highlight. Making his debut at the Copperhead Course, his ability from tee to green should shine on the tight-driving doglegs and small TifEagle Greens. He will not have to rely on his putter to keep up, but it will need to be up to the moment if he is going to win for the second time on TOUR. Gary Woodland (+15000), in 2011, is the last player to win on debut.


    Will Zalatoris' wedge sets up birdie at THE PLAYERS

    Will Zalatoris' wedge sets up birdie at THE PLAYERS


    Joe Highsmith (+10000) and Karl Vilips (+17000), winners from earlier this March, are entered.

    Lucas Glover (+5000), Danny Walker (+15000) and Bud Cauley (+7500) all finished T6 or better last weekend at THE PLAYERS Championship.

    The 2024 champion, Peter Malnati (+100000), defending for the second time on TOUR, is joined by Taylor Moore (+5000), Adam Hadwin (+12000) and Jordan Spieth (+3500) as past winners competing.

    Here's a look at the odds for the rest of the field via FanDuel:

    • +3300: Tom Kim
    • +4000: Michael Kim
    • +4500: Alex Smalley, Adam Scott
    • +5000: J.T. Poston, Viktor Hovland, Luke Clanton
    • +5500: Keith Mitchell, Jake Knapp, Cameron Young, Byeong-Hun An
    • +6000: Ben Griffin, Sahith Theegala, Thomas Detry
    • +7000: Stephan Jaeger, Rasmus Højgaard
    • +7500: Jacob Bridgeman
    • +8000: Harry Hall, Kurt Kitayama, Niklas Norgaard
    • +9000: Beau Hossler, Ryan Gerard, Sam Stevens, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Rasmus Neergard-Petersen

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

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