SAN DIEGO – The teeth of Torrey Pines South are out to challenge the PGA TOUR’s best this week at The Genesis Invitational, and as such, you’d better be looking at the best drivers of the golf ball.

As has long been a signature of the former U.S. Open venue, the course off the La Jolla bluffs is beefy, with the rough topped off at 3 1/2 inches on Monday and no plan to cut it again this week.

Add to that the expected rain over the next few days and wayward balls will be swallowed up with very little chance to control your game from out wide, unless you’ve smashed it so far that short irons and wedges can still reach the targets.

“A period of wet weather is expected across Southern California Wednesday through Friday. The first round of rain will arrive on Wednesday, especially during the afternoon hours,” said PGA TOUR meteorologist Kyle Koval. “Steadier rain will taper to periodic shower activity Wednesday night through the day Thursday.”

With that in mind, your first port of call has to be the Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. We then can also lean into Driving Distance and, because this will be a grind, Bogey Avoidance. To a lesser extent, we can also check Driving Accuracy, but in the context of also being long. A shorter hitter won’t win this week – but they can certainly be a sleeper for a place market.

When you’re talking the long ball, you have to talk Rory McIlroy (+700). While he isn’t officially ranked this season because he’s only played once, his efforts off the tee in winning at the AT&T Pebble Beach a few weeks ago was eye popping. He ‘would’ be leading Driving Distance at 336.6 yards plus Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at +2.431 and SG: Off-The-Tee at +1.474.

While I don’t love pre-tournament hits on him or favorite Scottie Scheffler (+400) I would be ready to pounce the minute they hit +1000 or higher during the first round… if it happens.

Instead, I’m looking for pre-tournament value on other big hitters. And first one on my radar is Ludvig Åberg (+2500). I am fully aware his low round from a few weeks ago was on the North Course, but the Swede is built for this place. He finished inside the top 10 on debut in 2024 and was on track to win this year before illness derailed him. In 2024, he ranked inside the top 15 in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Off-the-Tee and was fourth in Total Driving. He averaged 310 yards in Driving Distance, ranked 22nd, despite playing a huge chunk of it with a knee injury. On Tuesday, I made a beeline for him on the range and only needed to watch him hit pure shot after pure shot for a few minutes to know he’s healthy again. It helped to see him joking and smiling out there also. Åberg was also 23rd on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance last season.

Another option, for the wet-weather crew, is Shane Lowry (+4500). He doesn’t hit it as long as McIlroy and others but he was runner-up to his friend at Pebble Beach and ranks inside the top 15 in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Off-the-Tee. Don’t read too much into the missed cut at Farmers, because he was smashed by diabolical second round winds that basically wiped out half the field.

My bank-builder play this week would be a conservative Top 20 on Taylor Pendrith at +130. He was our cashed ticket at Farmers for a Top 10 and he should once again pop here with his pure driving game. Currently the Canadian is third on TOUR this season in SG: Off-the-Tee. He is also a solid 21st in Bogey Avoidance. Remember that there are only 72 players in this week’s field, with only the top 50 and ties (plus those within 10 shots of the lead) making the cut.

The next player to look at across the prop markets will actually be my lead “sleeper” this week in Min Woo Lee. Last season he was fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee and he’s coming in from a T12 at the WM Phoenix Open where he led the field in Driving Distance. He’s a solid 16th in Bogey Avoidance this season and Torrey South should suit him. He is +240 to be the top player from Oceania, behind favorite Jason Day. Day is a two-time winner at Torrey Pines but isn’t hitting it as well as his fellow Aussie off the tee right now.

Check out Sleeper Picks on Tuesday for the other players I have my eye on!

Benny's betting card

• Outright: Ludvig Åberg +2500
• Outright: Shane Lowry +4500
• Outright: Rory McIlroy (*Live Betting if he hits +1000 during the opening round.)
• Prop: Taylor Pendrith Top 20 +130
• Prop: Min Woo Lee Top Oceania +240 (Also consider ALL place markets as a Sleeper)

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