Forget Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau and even Rory McIlroy … a new major champion is set to lift the claret jug at The Open Championship at Royal Troon.

The trends are jumping off the page – and now we must decide. Does history count when it comes to betting on the most historic championship in golf?

Since 1946, after World War II, an average of two champions each year in golf’s four majors (the Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open or The Open Championship) were first-time major winners.

In those 78 years of major championship golf, we had exactly 156 first-time major winners, averaging out to exactly two a year. So far this season, one of the three, in Schauffele at the PGA, was a first-timer whereas Scheffler and DeChambeau each picked up major no. 2.

And so … if history is set to repeat again, we are due another first-timer. While some years, like 2014, had none, others had all four. In recent times it has been the case of at least two new major winners in 14 of the last 15 years.

Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open) and Brian Harman (The Open) were the latest to do so a year ago.

Adding to the trend is we are in the midst of seeing first-time major winners at Royal Troon. The last four winners here, Mark Calcavecchia (1989), Justin Leonard (1997), Todd Hamilton (2004) and Henrik Stenson (2016) were all new joiners to the club.

As a side note, we are also now at 10 straight first-time Open Championship winners, closing in on the previous record for the event. The longest span of first-time winners of The Open is from 1994 to 2004; there were 11 first-time champions in this period from Nick Price to Hamilton.

Of those last 10 champions, half were first-time major winners as well as first-time claret jug recipients.

Speaking of those 10 most recent Open champions, eight of them had at least one top 10 in the Open prior to their success. Only Cameron Smith in 2022 – who had a previous top-20 – and Collin Morikawa – who won on debut in 2021 – hadn’t proven they could contend in The Open prior to winning it.

So, to me, the sweet spot chasing a pick might be as simple as finding a potential first-time major winner, who has shown some Open success in the past.

But they should also be adept at ball-striking because in 2016, it was two men who dominated the rest in Stenson and Phil Mickelson and they both did so with sublime approach play.

Stenson ranked second on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach leading into that Open with Mickelson 15th. In SG: Tee-to-Green Stenson was seventh, Mickelson 15th. Clearly, they had form in the key stats for Troon and during the week they were first and third for GIR.

So who does it leave us with as the most likely candidates? To make the cut for my card you need to be gaining strokes on the average in Approach and Tee to Green. And bonus points for a previous Open top-10. My picks are down below with other options for you to ponder underneath.

Lastly, I do also like a handful of previous major winners – so if you don’t believe the first-timers trend, you’re also covered below.

Outrights

Ludvig Åberg

• Odds: +1400
• Open Championship top-10s: Zero (debut)
• Best Open result: Debut
• SG: Approach rank: Eighth
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: 11th

A contender in two of his first three major championships, and decent form for most of last week at the Genesis Scottish Open. I really don’t love the short odds for a player in his first Open, but I may find myself ruing not picking him if I leave him off my card. Could repeat what Collin Morikawa did a few years ago and win on debut.

Tony Finau

• Odds: +4500
• Open Championship top-10s: Two
• Best Open result: Third
• SG: Approach rank: Third
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: Sixth

Here is my under-the-radar pick for the title. He doesn’t fit in the longshot category … just … but Finau has a previous couple of Open Championship top-10s and he’s also in recent form with three straight top-10s and five straight top-20s, including a T3 at the U.S. Open. Most importantly, Finau is third on TOUR in SG: Approach and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green. He is a “sleeper” many aren’t talking about.

Top 5

Corey Conners

• Odds: +6600 outright, +1000 Top-5
• Open Championship top-10s: Zero
• Best Open result: 15th
• SG Approach rank: Fourth
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: Seventh

Conners is a quintessential ball-striker who I can’t see winning the title but I can see sniffing around it before falling just short. Ranked fourth in SG: Approach and seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green have me eyeing off the 10/1 odds on a high finish. Maybe the +450 for a Top-10 is something to also think on given he has three top-10s in his last five starts.

Top 10

Aaron Rai

• Odds: +5500 outright, +450 for Top-10
• Open Championship top-10s: Zero
• Best Open result: 19th
• SG Approach rank: Seventh
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: 10th

You can call it a bandwagon pick if you like but I’ll point out I was on Rai for a Top-5 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the first of his three-straight top-seven finishes. He is on a run of five straight top-20s and while it eventually has to end, his ball-striking has been so good of late I’m prepared to give him another week in the crosshairs.

Top 20

Viktor Hovland

• Odds: +3300 outright, +120 Top 20
• Open Championship top-10s: One
• Best Open result: Fourth
• SG Approach rank: 47th
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: 66th

I want to believe more in the FedExCup champion and perhaps I’ll kick myself if he holds aloft the claret jug, but I do think a change in fortune is around the corner for Hovland. I honestly feel the Norwegian will win The Open at some point and given he is 3-for-3 for finishing inside the top-20 at Opens. I’ll back the streak to continue.

Top 40

Sepp Straka

• Odds: +10000 outright, +120 for a Top-40
• Open Championship top-10s: One
• Best Open result: Second
• SG: Approach rank: 32nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: 48th

He was a runner-up a year ago so I’m happy to see plus money for a top-40 this time around. I know he missed the cut last week but he’s not that far removed from a run of five top-11s in six starts. With more than solid approach and tee-to-green options I like his chances.

Other trending notables

Tommy Fleetwood

• Odds: +2500
• Open Championship top-10s: Three
• Best Open result: Second
• SG Approach rank: 104th
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: 41st

Robert MacIntyre

• Odds: +3300
• Open Championship top-10s: Two
• Best Open result: Sixth
• SG Approach rank: 103rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: 45th

Tom Kim

• Odds: +4000
• Open Championship top-10s: One
• Best Open result: Second
• SG Approach rank: 63rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: 50th

Patrick Cantlay

• Odds: +4000
• Open Championship top-10s: One
• Best Open result: Eighth
• SG Approach rank: 89th
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: 56th

Tyrrell Hatton

• Odds: +2200
• Open Championship top-10s: Two
• Best Open result: Fifth
• SG Approach rank: N/A
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: N/A

Cameron Young

• Odds: +5500
• Open Championship top-10s: Two
• Best Open result: Second
• SG Approach rank: 52nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: 29th

Akshay Bhatia

• Odds: +10000
• Open Championship top-10s: On debut
• Best Open result: On debut
• SG Approach rank: 17th
• SG: Tee-to-Green rank: 20th

Previous major winners bracket

Three names are on my radar of former major winners who I see contending, two of whom are recent winners of the championship and one who arguably should have at least one claret jug to his name if not more.

• Outrights
  • Collin Morikawa: +1600: An iron player extraordinaire when on his game, I really like Morikawa despite the fact he’s missed the cut in the two attempts at The Open since winning in 2021. A T3 at the Masters, T4 at the PGA, T14 at the U.S. Open are among 10 straight top-25 finishes this season. He could break the above trends.
  • Cameron Smith: +4500: When you need imaginative golf to win, Smith is one of the best in the world. The 2022 winner represents some value this week.
• Place markets
  • Adam Scott: +400 Top-10, +200 Top-20: No player in my time covering the game fit the “should’ve won” label at a major more than Scott at The Open. From his 2012 collapse where he had one (and a half) hands around the jug with a four-shot lead with four to play, to further legitimate chances in 2013, 2014 and 2015… Scott’s career will always have many what-ifs. His form last week gives hope he can perhaps right the past wrongs with a little magic.

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