Sunday story-lines: PGA Championship up for grabs as multiple challengers surface
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Sahith Theegala sinks birdie putt at PGA Championship
Written by Ben Everill
LOUISVILLE KY. – The PGA Championship is wide open after multiple challengers forged their way into contention with a round to go at Valhalla Golf Club.
A total of 15 players are within five shots of the lead, breathing plenty of anticipation into Sunday’s final round. With the softened course giving up low scores, the chase for glory could easily come from back in the pack despite the fact 12 of the last 13 PGA winners have been within two of the lead with a round to play.
Xander Schauffele continued his fine form with a 3-under 68 to maintain his place at the top, the Californian moving to 15-under for the tournament as he looks to make his 13th major championship top-10 his first win in the majors.
But he’s not alone at the top with another Golden State alum in Collin Morikawa, a two-time major winner, shooting 68 to join him at 15-under and in the final group. BetMGM Sportsbook has Schauffele at +260 and Morikawa at +275 as the most likely victors.
Sitting just one shot behind is another California kid in Sahith Theegala. The one-time PGA TOUR winner is just 26 but looking to add his name to major championship history.
Ireland’s Shane Lowry, the recent winner of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Rory McIlroy, lit up Valhalla on Saturday with a front nine 29. He maintained the rage on the back side and was left with an 11-foot, 10-inch birdie putt for the first 61 in major history.
When the attempt trickled to the left of the hole the 2019 Open Champion was left with just the fifth 62 in major history, moving him into a tie for fourth at 13-under.
He is joined in fourth place by FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland who is looking to go one better than his runner-up finish at Oak Hill a year ago, as well as former U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau.
European Ryder Cup winners Justin Rose and Robert MacIntyre share seventh at 12-under.
Two-time PGA Champion and local Kentucky product Justin Thomas is five shots off the pace, closer than the seven shots back he rallied from in 2022 at Southern Hills. With a boisterous crowd behind him, anything could happen.
One player who likely won’t take the Wanamaker trophy is Masters champion Scottie Scheffler. A day after being arrested and still shooting 5-under, Scheffler came back to earth with a 2-over 73. At 7-under he sits eight shots back and needs a miracle.
Here is a quick look at the latest odds and storylines heading to Sunday with my draws and fades below.
+260: Xander Schauffele (15-under, T1) – Chasing first major championship win after 12 previous top-10s without a victory. Is 2-for-8 closing 54-hole leads on the PGA TOUR. Leads Driving Accuracy, GIR, Total Driving, Scrambling, Par-5 Scoring, Front 9 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance.
+275: Collin Morikawa (15-under, T1) – Looking for third major win to go with 2020 PGA Championship and 2021 Open Championship. Was T3 at recent Masters. Leads Par Breakers, Par-3 Scoring, Back 9 Scoring, 3-Putt Avoidance and SG: Around-the-Green.
+700: Bryson DeChambeau (13-under, T4) – Former U.S. Open winner and long-drive enthusiast chasing his second major championship. Closed Saturday with chip in eagle. Leads Driving Distance, Sand Saves, Bounce Back and Front 9 Scoring.
+750: Sahith Theegala (14-under, third) – Young gun looking to make his second PGA TOUR win his first major championship. Just 26 years old. Leads Par-3 Scoring, Scrambling from Rough and 3-Putt Avoidance.
+750: Viktor Hovland (13-under, T4) – FedExCup champion has reemerged after slow start to season, chasing first major championship. T2 at the PGA last year. Leads Par-5 Scoring.
+1200: Shane Lowry (13-under, T4) – Missed a birdie putt for the first 61 in major championship history but his record-tying 62 gives him a shot at his second major to go with his 2019 Open Championship. Leads field in SG: Putting, Par-4 Scoring and Proximity.
+3300: Justin Rose (12-under, T7) – Shot 64 and was bested by two shots in his group! The veteran is looking to add to his 2013 U.S. Open title. Leads Sand Saves.
+4000: Robert MacIntyre (12-under, T7) – European Ryder Cup winner now chasing the biggest victory of his career. Two-time DP World Tour winner and runner-up at last year’s Genesis Scottish Open on the PGA TOUR.
+6600: Justin Thomas (10-under, T10) – Local Kentucky crowd favorite came from seven back to win the 2022 PGA. This time he starts five back. Leads the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and Front 9 Scoring.
Draws
Collin Morikawa +275
When it comes to the two favorites at the top of the board my heart says Schauffele but my head says Morikawa. Since returning to his old coach Rick Sessinghouse in recent times Morikawa has been on a serious uptick in form and the reality is he’s been there, done that. In 2020 we had a packed PGA Championship leaderboard and it was Morikawa who stepped up and took the title when it mattered. The experience of that win, and his 2021 Open Championship triumph, make him the player to beat.
“I'm going to tap in just kind of that mental state I've been in, not only those two, but in other tournaments I've played well in. I think the goal for me tonight before my tee time is just to be mentally sharp by that first hole,” Morikawa said.
“Looking back at a month ago at Augusta, I felt sharp in everything, but I feel like I could have had a little bit of self-talk before I went out on that first tee and really just not got ahead of myself. Not that I did, but two holes really cost me back there. Tomorrow is just going to put everything I have out there and see how it plays out.”
Morikawa crucially leads the field in Back 9 Scoring and total birdies and is also the best in the field on the tough par-3s.
Sahith Theegala +750
If you are looking for a bit of juice on the odds board there is a risk-reward play on Theegala. Here’s the rub. He’s going to make a mistake or two at some stage tomorrow. His driver can get wayward and I expect at some point for the Shot Tracer to be curving hard sideways. But he’s also leading the field in Scrambling from the Rough and 3-Putt Avoidance so IF, and it is a big IF under Sunday pressure, he gets lucky with those wild swings that will come… he has the skill to go low.
“I have no expectations for tomorrow and thankful for the opportunity to be out late on Sunday at a major in contention. I know my game is good enough to compete,” Theegala said.
“It's kind of what I'm going to base it off of tomorrow and there's a bunch of guys that are just absolute world-beaters and major champions ahead of me and behind me. So I'm going to have to play my butt off but I'm just really excited for the challenge tomorrow.”
Fades
Xander Schauffele +260
Go ahead Xander, prove me wrong. We’ve slotted Schauffele here all week because of the narrative of the past. A total of 12 major Top-10s but no wins on his card and a 2-for-8 record closing 54-hole leads on the PGA TOUR mean that his confidence level is low on his chances.
When he was younger, Schauffele was a clutch chaser, but when he’s out in front he’s struggled. This is his fifth time in the final group on Sunday this season and he’s yet to win. Hasn’t won since the 2022 Scottish Open. If he finally closes the deal, I’ll be one of the first to give him a big high five but the odds say my hand will be slap free.
Shane Lowry +750
Backing up a super low round is notoriously tough and Lowry is coming off the equal best round in major history. The energy used up Saturday will be hard to recoup when the adrenaline dump occurs but there is an even bigger reason to fade the Irish lovable larrikin.
Lowry leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting at +3.609 a round this week but notoriously this is a weakness in his game compared to his great ball striking. In fact, to this point on the PGA TOUR season he ranks 168th in SG: Putting, losing -0.506 strokes a round. Surely this regresses in the final round at Valhalla.
Wildcard
Justin Thomas +6600
I was there at Southern Hills two years ago when Justin Thomas hit a stone-cold shank on the par-3 6th hole on Sunday, leading to a bogey and an eight-shot deficit to the leaders. He was +25000 to win his second Wanamaker trophy. And then, riding a wave of support, he carved through the field before ultimately winning in a playoff.
Given he is a native of Louisville the support for Thomas on Sunday at Valhalla will be epic. He leads Front 9 Scoring this week and is first in SG: Tee-to-Green. Sadly, he is 70th in SG: Putting but IF he can sink some early putts and get the crowd rumbling it is a wave Thomas knows how to ride.