Tournament Preview (David Barnett)

With the season’s final major behind us, our attention turns to the FedExCup Playoff race. TPC Twin Cities plays host to the 3M Open for the fifth time, and the field is rather strong due to players needing to improve their Playoff status with only two events remaining in the regular season. Remember, only the top 70 in the standings after next week’s Wyndham Championship advance to the three-event postseason stretch, while the top 50 advancing to the BMW Championship will lock up spots in designated events next year.

Justin Thomas is making his debut at the 3M Open, as he’s in danger of missing the Playoffs from his current position of 75th. Gary Woodland (90th) needs a strong two weeks to make the field in Memphis, and Keith Mitchell (66th) hopes to stay just inside the top 70 with a solid performance at TPC Twin Cities. These are just a few of the key names to pay attention to this week in Minnesota.

In addition to the Playoff race, the Ryder Cup outlook for a handful of American players remains murky. Players have only a few more weeks to leave an impression on U.S. Captain Zach Johnson before the team for Rome is finalized. Underlying motivations like Playoff implications and potential Ryder Cup spots are factors to be aware of, but don’t always lead to better play by a particular player. Some players respond better than others to the increased urgency in situations like this.

In terms of DFS, we can use this information to determine one player over another in a “coin flip” scenario, or to anticipate where the narrative can lead to chalky plays possibly worth avoiding? With plenty of eyes on him this week, will Justin Thomas’ unlikely position in the standings suddenly help him get the ball in the hole?

With this in mind, we still have a course to evaluate in TPC Twin Cities. In the four years prior, it has yielded winning scores from 15 to 21 under, with three of its four champions being noted bombers. Every year, the average number of approach shots from 175-200 yards and shots over 250 yards has been above the PGA TOUR average. With four to five par 4s over 450 yards, all three par 5s playing over 575 yards, and three par 3s playing around 200 yards, you can see how the players with higher swing speeds could have a distinct advantage. But the bombers have noted the length as a greater advantage on approach rather than off the tee.

“It’s just a very positional golf course,” said 2021 winner Cameron Champ. “I hit my 2-iron [off the tee] on probably six or seven of the par 4s.” A lot of the hesitancy to rip driver everywhere comes from the numerous holes where water is in play off the tee.

All in all, TPC Twin Cities will likely produce an eclectic leaderboard. It seems to be a course that can be attacked from more than one angle, whether you’re Champ or 2020 winner Michael Thompson. The properly sized, bent grass greens present gettable targets from the fairway, and the pure surfaces reward strong putters. The weather looks uneventful for the week, with the exception of steamy temperatures threatening the triple digits. TPC Twin Cities looks ripe for low scores from a stacked field with Playoff implications on the line.

Lineup Picks (Pat Perry & Ben Little)

As we continue further into the hot months of July and August, it’s time for these guys to buckle down for the FedExCup home stretch. It’s also when, as they say, if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen! With potential triple-digit temperatures and a lot on the line, we want players that can cook in the heat this week.

One player we feel strongly about in our player pool “kitchen” is Sungjae Im. Im has been a little inconsistent lately, but he’s always very solid off the tee and into the greens. He’s also putting well lately, having gained strokes in his last five events, not to mention a top-15 and a second-place finish in two starts at TPC Twin Cities. Given the lack of top-10 finishes of late for Im, he’ll likely be completely avoided in DFS at the hefty price of $10.300. Im hasn’t quite looked like himself lately, but we all know it’s in there. The winning upside is there.

Two crazy things happened recently. No, not two lefties winning on the same day in Brian Harman at The Open and Akshay Bhatia at the Barracuda Championship. Lucas Glover gained strokes with his putter in consecutive tournaments.

In fact, Glover gained over 5 strokes with his putter at the Rocket Mortgage Classic! The last couple of times we saw anything close to this for Glover was last year’s FedEx St. Jude Classic, where he finished third, and the 2021 John Deere Classic where he won. Perhaps this new broomstick putter has added some magic to Glover’s bag.

It’s wise to pick and choose your spots with Glover, but this seems like a great week to add him to your player pool. He won’t go ignored in the $8,000 range, but his recent play indicates he could be one of the best values in the top price ranges. Glover could also use a big week to move up the FedExCup standings, as he currently sits at No. 107.

Finally, with names like Champ, Eric Cole and Austin Eckroat littering the upper and mid-$7,000 range on DraftKings, will everyone forget about Justin Suh at $7,600? Suh has racked up eight top-30 finishes on the PGA TOUR this season, including the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and THE PLAYERS Championship. His only attempt here came in 2019 with a T58, but he shows up this week ready to vault into the top 70 of the FedExCup standing from his current position at No. 76.

Suh has been an elite putter for most of the season. The only weaknesses in his game seem to be approach and around the green play based on the data. However, around the green play at TPC Twin Cities takes a back seat in our model, with the GIR percentage higher than average. We’ve seen Suh have some serious spike weeks when he simply has a higher than average iron week combined with that red-hot flatstick. He offers some serious upside potential (as he’s already proven this season) in a range with more popular players in DFS.