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May 24, 2023

Matchup Minute: Back Shane Lowry’s course fit over Sahith Theegala’s variance at the Memorial

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Matchup Minute: Back Shane Lowry’s course fit over Sahith Theegala’s variance at the Memorial
    Written by Reid Fowler

    Muirfield Village Golf Club is as iconic as they come. The course is a par 72, measuring 7,533 yards with Bentgrass greens. As if the tournament needed to attract the best players in the world more than it already does, the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday is an elevated event, one of the last remaining this season outside of the majors and FedExCup Playoff events.

    One of Nicklaus' signature design features is forgiving fairways but challenging greens. Over the previous five years, the Fairway Hit in Regulation averaged 69%, while the TOUR average is eight points lower, around 61%. The Greens in Regulation hit rate is 61%, five points lower than the TOUR average (66%). Jack also implemented forced layups, mitigating the golfers' ability to hit it far down the wide fairways. He strategically placed bunkers and water hazards throughout the fairways, causing players to hit less than driver. A total of 68 bunkers throughout the course, and 13 water hazards come into play on 13 holes.

    Like all Nicklaus courses, Strokes Gained: Approach is priority No. 1. Over the previous five years, the winners gained nearly two and a half times more strokes with their approach than off the tee, even though it's a long course. Most of the course's distance resides in these long par 4s, six measuring 450 to 500 yards. Like Pete Dye's courses, Muirfield Village is more about being in the correct position off the tee rather than sheer distance. Golfers want to avoid hitting these fast Bentgrass greens out of the thick rough.

    Here are some matchups to consider this week at the Memorial, with odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

    Tournament Head-to-Head: Shane Lowry (-110) over Sahith Theegala

    Rarely do I bet against Theegala with his ability to make a slew of birdies, but Lowry sets up well this week, especially with his ball-striking performance at Oak Hill where he gained an impressive 3.7 shots off the tee and 5.5 with his irons. Lowry’s finishes here read sixth two seasons ago, a top-15 in 2017 and a 32nd last season. The only part of his game that’s worrisome is the putting, losing 0.5 strokes per round over his previous 24. Still, I’ll side with Lowry’s ball-striking over the wildcard of Theegala.

    Tournament Head-to-Head: Adam Svensson (-120) over Justin Suh

    A top 20 for Suh at the Charles Schwab Challenge doesn’t move the needle as much as the 27th at the Wells Fargo Championship from Svensson. Even though he lost strokes with the approach, he’s found something with the putter, gaining 6.4 at the PGA Championship and 4.3 at Quail Hollow in early May. Svensson is one of the better ball-strikers on TOUR, and we’ve seen him slowly improve his approach game over the last couple of weeks. The Canadian’s 45th last season doesn’t scream confidence, but Suh’s missed cut in 2019 is his only start at Jack’s place, which should make Suh fans a touch weary about him this week.

    First-Round 3-balls: Byeong Hun-An (+175) over Denny McCarthy and Patrick Rodgers

    Benny An’s track record at Muirfield Village is excellent, sporting five top-25s over his previous seven starts. He lost in a playoff in 2018 and is coming in with form finishing 21st last week, 14th at the AT&T Byron Nelson and sixth at the Valero Texas Open back in early April. I’m not worried about the back-to-back missed cuts in his last two starts here, as he’s playing at a high level heading into this week while gaining an average of 4.7 strokes total over his previous five events.

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