Weather conditions for this year's Memorial Tournament look to be ideal. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 90's with very little wind, possibly topping out at 10-15 MPH over the weekend. Thursday and Friday especially appear to be ripe for scoring on what will be a very challenging golf course at Jack Nicklaus' Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio.

The Memorial carries elevated status, as it should. The top players in the world are here to compete at one of the top courses on the PGA TOUR schedule. The average winning score over the past 10 years has been 13.7 under par. This week's 72-Hole Winning Score proposition bet opened at 274.5, meaning 13.5 under par - so the number is spot-on although with the benign weather conditions and the strength of this field, I believe this year's winner will get to 14 under par or better.

Of course, all of that begins on Thursday and I have a hunch that the low scoring will begin early and often. Muirfield Village is a par-72 course that stretches to nearly 7,600 yards, but if this beast can be tamed, it ought to come early in the tournament. Historically, the number tells us Thursday's First Round Leader will get to 3 or 4 under par. I believe we are looking at 5-6 under par to lead after Round 1. The hard part is figuring out who is going to carry the torch in getting there.

As we lead up to the U.S. Open, this week and last week on TOUR, for me, have always been tournaments to pay attention to in trying to glean possible U.S. Open success. Colonial Country Club, the site of last week's Charles Schwab Challenge, hosted a U.S. Open in 1941 and still plays similarly to this day. In the last 21 editions of the Memorial, we have seen six U.S. Open champions win the tournament with another handful of Memorial winners accounting for a combined 14 top-10 finishes in a U.S. Open. The canned phrase for what it takes to win a U.S. Open has always been "fairways and greens." That recipe won't hurt around here either, but I am going to refine it a bit and hone in on approach play and and work done on and around the greens.

The Memorial is a test that will require a little bit of everything, but I am going to focus on the iron play - the second shot, as is always a point of emphasis in Jack Nicklaus design - along with the short game in trying to come up with a front-runner for Thursday.

Here are the players I have circled for the FRL market, with odds via BetMGM Sportsbook and leading off with a former champ:

Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)

Matsuyama arrives in good form to a course where he won in 2014. In his last five stroke-play starts, Matsuyama hasn't finished worse than 29th. Over the last 36 rounds, Matsuyama ranks 19th in this field for SG: Approach, 11th for SG: Around the Green, and fourth in Bogey Avoidance. He is 58th on TOUR in Birdie Average. I used TPC Sawgrass as a correlated course in my handicap this week and we remember in March of 2020 when the golfing world came to a stop, cancelling The PLAYERS after Round 1 due to COVID. Matsuyama was your First Round Leader that year after firing an opening round 63, tying a course record. Over the last 12 rounds, Matsuyama is fourth in this field for SG: Around the Green on courses with long rough and firm and fast greens.

Byeong Hun An (+8000)

An comes in off a 21st-place finish last week at Colonial and a 14th at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He has only missed one cut since November 2022. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 26th in this field for SG: Approach and Bogey Avoidance. He is fifth for SG: Around the Green and fourth in Scrambling. An ranks 37th on TOUR in Birdie Average and is 21st in First Round Scoring Average. He has opened with rounds of 68 here twice in the past and ranks 17th in this field over the last 12 rounds for SG: Around the Green on courses with long rough and firm and fast greens. He was also part of a playoff at Muirfield Village back in 2018.

Kevin Streelman (+9000)

In selecting Streelman, I went away from the handicap slightly as he is 84th in this field for SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds. However, he is also 15th for SG: Around the Green and eighth in Scrambling. The form is good too, finishing 18th at the Wells Fargo Championship and ninth last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Streelman has finished Top 10 here at the Memorial three times and Top 20 another three times. He has opened with a round as low as 67 and shot a final round 66 in both 2011 and 2019. In 2015, he shot a Saturday 65. I am willing to budge a bit on the approach numbers, given the current and course form.

The PGA TOUR is committed to protecting our fans. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, the National Council on Problem Gambling operates a confidential toll-free hotline that you can reach by phone or text at 1-800-522-4700.