The PGA TOUR hits a bomber's course and it could also be a week for some long bombs in the betting markets. The Mexico Open at Vidanta is in just its second year on the TOUR schedule, taking place less than a mile from the coast, between Nuevo and Puerto Vallarta. It is the thinnest field we've seen all season with just three players from the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking taking part, including world No. 1 and your defending champion, Jon Rahm.

Rahm is the favorite at +250. Tony Finau, back for the second straight year in Mexico, is the second choice at +750. After that, this appears to be anybody's ball game with the potential for a triple-digit price to hit the winner's circle come Sunday. If you like playing the long shots, this is your week.

Vidanta Vallarta features wide fairways with very little rough. The greens are large and over 100 sand bunkers dot the layout. Both the greens and the fairways are Paspalum grass, a popular coastal turf species. The Ameca River runs throughout the course, bringing water into play on 14 holes. Last season, we saw the winds kick up quite a bit in the afternoon, gusting up to 30 MPH. The forecast is relatively calm this year with winds expected in the 10-15 MPH range - but you never know when you are at a coastal venue.

Seven of the top 10 finishers in last year's Mexico Open at Vidanta finished in the top 16 in the field for Driving Distance, so that becomes a key stat to consider. I also looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and SG: Approach. Vidanta Vallarta measures nearly 7,500 yards and is a Par 71 with two par 5's extending to over 600 yards. Nearly 45% of the approach shots on this golf course have come from 200 yards or more into the greens - so I considered hole proximity from 200+. I also looked at Birdies or Better Gained and current form.

Several players made my list this week to win the tournament outright and I’ve picked out three of them that I think could make some noise on Thursday in our quest to find a First Round Leader. We nearly cashed last week with the duo of Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell as they were clipped by just one shot in the late stages of last week’s opening round in New Orleans. Let’s see if we can get one to hang on this week in Mexico.

Patrick Rodgers (+4000)

With the potential for the wind increasing in the afternoons at this golf course, I am sticking with players teeing off in the early wave this week. Rodgers opened with a 66 three weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open and ended up finishing fifth for the tournament. He followed that up with a top-20 finish at Harbour Town, where he shot an opening round 68 and a 66 on Saturday. He putts very well on Paspalum. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks ninth in this field for Birdies or Better Gained, 15th in Driving Distance, and 17th in SG: Off the Tee. At this tournament last year, Rodgers opened with a 66, just two shots off the first-round lead.

Stephan Jaeger (+5000)

Jaeger has opened with a round in the 60's eleven times this season and most recently opened with a 66 at the Valspar Championship a little over a month ago. He ranks 11th on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average. Over the last 36 rounds, Jaeger is 29th in this field for Driving Distance, 15th in SG: Off the Tee, and 38th in SG: Approach. Two correlated courses I used this week were Corales, where they play the Corales Puntacana Championship and also the Country Club at Jackson, home to the Sanderson Farms Championship. Jaeger has opened with rounds in the 60’s in his last three visits to these two events.

Alex Smalley (+5500)

Smalley was runner-up at Corales in 2022, finishing with a final round 65. Another comp course I considered this week was Torrey Pines, home to the Farmers Insurance Open. Smalley fired a 62 there in the second round last year and he opened with a 66 on Thursday here at Vidanta last season. The 26-year-old has fared well at two other coastal courses this season, taking 11th at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship and fifth in Sea Island at the RSM Classic, opening with rounds of 65 and 67 respectively. Smalley ranks 23rd in this field for SG: Off the Tee over the last 36 rounds and 23rd for SG: Approach.